Thiago Moises vs Joel Alvarez
Joel Alvarez beat Thiago Moises
We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.
- Averages 1.2 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Alvarez.
- Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
- Every one of Alvarez’s 3 UFC wins came inside the distance.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
No round-by-round tape on file
UFCStats has no per-round record for this bout, so there is no timeline to draw. The result and the finish above are unaffected — this is a hole in the round-by-round tape, and we will not fill it in from the fight totals.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Joel Alvarez
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened.
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Thiago Moises
Joel Alvarez
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.32 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
The market story
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
Thiago Moises opened at 63.9% and closed at 69.5% (+5.6pp), with Joel Alvarez moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.
Show the numbers
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | -200 | -263 | 63.9% | 69.5% | +5.6pp |
| Joel Alvarez | 165 | 214 | 36.1% | 30.5% | −5.6pp |