Round 1
29 of 54
Sig.
strikes
strikes
26 of 37
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
Distance 29Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 26Clinch 0Ground 0
From the tape · 9 May 2020
Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Jacksonville, Florida, USA
Result
Justin Gaethje beat Tony Ferguson
Interim Lightweight TitleTitle fightMainReferee · Herb Dean
We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.
TF
VSOn the tape
The story going in
- Comes in on a 12-fight win streak.
- Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
- Has finished 11 of 15 UFC wins.
- Every one of Gaethje’s 4 UFC wins came inside the distance.
26-11
Record
28-5
36
Age
−5 yr31
5' 11"
Height
5' 11"
+6″76″
Reach
70″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
+1016
UFC bouts
6
11/1573% of wins
Finishes
+27%4/4100% of wins
Knuckleheadz MMA
Gym
Genesis Training Center
Oxnard, California
From
Safford, Arizona
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
5 rounds of tape
Round 2
33 of 64
Sig.
strikes
strikes
37 of 50
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
Distance 33Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 37Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 3
24 of 69
Sig.
strikes
strikes
20 of 35
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
Distance 24Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 20Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 4
36 of 73
Sig.
strikes
strikes
26 of 36
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
Distance 36Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 26Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 5Ended 3:39
14 of 36
Sig.
strikes
strikes
34 of 39
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
Distance 14Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 34Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Justin Gaethje
Round
5
Clock
3:39
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Herb Dean.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Tony Ferguson
0.39 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.33 / 15m
1.11 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
0.82 / 15m
35%
ACCURACY
40%
0.90 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m
66%
TD DEFENCE
74%
Justin Gaethje
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.22 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Lightweight
The market story
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
Tony Ferguson↑ +5.4pp
open 62.1%close 67.6%
Justin Gaethje↓ −5.4pp
open 37.9%close 32.4%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)
Tony Ferguson opened at 62.1% and closed at 67.6% (+5.4pp), with Justin Gaethje moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.
Show the numbers
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Ferguson | -180 | -240 | 62.1% | 67.6% | +5.4pp |
| Justin Gaethje | 155 | 195 | 37.9% | 32.4% | −5.4pp |
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.