Round 12 sub attempts
14 of 48
Sig.
strikes
strikes
54 of 99
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
2:08
2
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 13Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 30Clinch 0Ground 24
From the tape · 4 May 2019
Kyle Nelson vs Matt Sayles
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Result
Matt Sayles beat Kyle Nelson
FeatherweightMain cardReferee · Todd Ronald Anderson
We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.
VSOn the tape
MS
17-7-1
Record
8-4
28
Age
−3 yr25
+4″5' 11"
Height
5' 7"
+3″71″
Reach
68″
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
1
UFC bouts
1
House of Champions MMA
Gym
Alliance MMA
Huntsville, Ontario
From
San Diego, California
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 22 sub attempts
5 of 17
Sig.
strikes
strikes
6 of 14
2 of 4
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
3:26
Control
0:13
2
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 4Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 6Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 31 sub attemptEnded 3:16
7 of 28
Sig.
strikes
strikes
15 of 34
0 of 6
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:21
Control
0:26
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
1
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 12Clinch 3Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Matt Sayles
Round
3
Clock
3:16
Method
Submission
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Todd Ronald Anderson.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Kyle Nelson
1.18 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.36 / 15m
5.13 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
2.25 / 15m
23%
ACCURACY
16%
0.50 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.70 / 15m
66%
TD DEFENCE
81%
Matt Sayles
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.32 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked roster-wide
The market story
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
Kyle Nelson↓ −10.8pp
open 47.1%close 36.3%
Matt Sayles↑ +10.8pp
open 52.9%close 63.7%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)
Kyle Nelson opened at 47.1% and closed at 36.3% (−10.8pp), with Matt Sayles moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.
Show the numbers
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | -105 | 165 | 47.1% | 36.3% | −10.8pp |
| Matt Sayles | -135 | -196 | 52.9% | 63.7% | +10.8pp |
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.