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History · 2010 · UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Paul Kelly vs TJ O'Brien
From the tape · 20 Nov 2010

Paul Kelly vs TJ O'Brien

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA
Result

Paul Kelly beat TJ O'Brien

Method
KO/TKO
Round
2 of 3
Clock
3:16
LightweightMain cardReferee · Dan Miragliotta

We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.

PK
Red corner PaulKellyTeam Kaobon · Liverpool
VSOn the tape
TO
Blue corner TJO'Brien“The Spider”
Lightweight3 rounds20 Nov 2010
The story going in
  • Carries 30 points more takedown defence than O'Brien.
  • Is 9 points more accurate striking than Kelly.
14-5
Record
20-8
26
Age
−3 yr23
5' 9"
Height
+5″6' 2"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

2 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Paul Kelly17 sig landed
HEAD59%10 of 49BODY12%2 of 2LEGS29%5 of 7
TJ O'Brien19 sig landed
HEAD42%8 of 34BODY21%4 of 7LEGS37%7 of 11
17 of 58
Sig.
strikes
19 of 52
1 of 1
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:52
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 15Clinch 2Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 18Clinch 0Ground 1
Round 23:16 of action⚡ 1 KD KellyEnded 3:16
Paul Kelly27 sig landed
HEAD100%27 of 44BODY0%0 of 1LEGS0%0 of 1
TJ O'Brien13 sig landed
HEAD69%9 of 13BODY8%1 of 1LEGS23%3 of 3
27 of 46
Sig.
strikes
13 of 17
0 of 0
Take-
downs
1 of 1
2:02
Control
0:27
1
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 2Clinch 0Ground 25
Where it
happened
Distance 10Clinch 0Ground 3

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Paul Kelly

Round
2
Clock
3:16
Method
KO/TKO

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Dan Miragliotta.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Paul Kelly

1.34takedowns / 15 min
1.34 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.94 / 15m
2.23 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
0.94 / 15m
60%
ACCURACY
100%
1.50 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m

TJ O'Brien

0.94takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.22 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Lightweight

The market story

Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.

Paul Kellyclose only
no opening line on recordclose 64.3%
TJ O'Brienclose only
no opening line on recordclose 35.7%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)

We hold the closing consensus for this bout but no opening line, so the strip marks the close alone: Paul Kelly 64.3%, TJ O'Brien 35.7%, vig removed.

Show the numbers
CornerOpen (US)Close (US)Open %Close %Move
Paul Kelly-170-200—64.3%—
TJ O'Brien—170—35.7%—
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-06-10 · BestFightOdds has no fighter page scraped for T.J. Obrien, so that corner’s CLOSE is read from the opponent’s row, which names it explicitly. No opening line exists for that corner and none is shown.. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.
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