FightIQ's model flagged seven of the 12 bouts it read for UFC Sacramento on Saturday, and the main event is one of them.
The card runs at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. Two of the seven flagged picks came back at LOCK, our top confidence tier, and five came back at HIGH. Those are the only two tiers we call flagged.
Reinier de Ridder at 79.6% over Roman Dolidze is the strongest read on the card. The model projects a decision.
Shanelle Dyer at 78.7% over Elise Reed is the second LOCK, also by decision.
The main event sits below the two LOCKs. The model gives Anthony Hernandez 73.0% over Gregory Rodrigues and projects a decision there as well.
The remaining four HIGH picks are Marcio Barbosa at 67.9% over Ryan Kuse by KO/TKO, Mason Jones at 65.7% over MarQuel Mederos by decision, Carli Judice at 65.6% over Jeisla Chaves by decision and Lerryan Douglas at 64.3% over Jamall Emmers by decision.
Five of the seven flagged picks project a decision. Barbosa is the only one the model expects to end early. The model's conviction tonight is concentrated in fights it expects to go the distance.
Five of the bouts we modelled came back under the flag line, and we publish those numbers without flagging them.
Vitor Petrino reads 59.5% over Serghei Spivac by KO/TKO. Kennedy Nzechukwu reads 54.9% over Shamil Gaziev by KO/TKO. Gauge Young reads 53.2% over Stan Dorsainvil by decision, Chris Padilla 53.1% over Nasrat Haqparast by decision and Jackson McVey 52.4% over Wes Schultz by KO/TKO.
Every fight above carries real betting-market odds, which the model reads as one of its inputs. All 12 were checked before publication.
One fight on tonight's card is missing from the set. Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman has no model read, and we are not publishing a number for it.
Our source listings and our modelled set also still disagree on how many bouts the card holds, so we are not asserting a total. Everything above describes the 12 bouts we modelled.
Last Saturday at UFC 330 we published four LOCK picks. Two of the four won, and both losses came by submission.
Tonight we publish two LOCKs and five HIGH picks. Both are card-level counts, and we are not connecting them to each other. Nothing about tonight's numbers was set in response to last week's card. What the model flags moves around from week to week.
None of these fights have happened. The numbers are the model's pre-fight reads and nothing here is a recommendation to bet.
We will grade the seven flagged picks once the card is finished, the same way we graded the four from last Saturday.