The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomTybura vs. Fortune recap and model autopsy: a flat 7-for-12 night, and we called the main event wrongTyrell Fortune went the distance to beat Marcin Tybura in the headliner our model had backing Tybura. The card hit 58% overall, and our flagged top picks split 2-of-4.
The breakdown
Adesanya "The Last Stylebender" is a former UFC MW champion and one of the greatest strikers in MMA history. 5 KO wins, 8 decisions in 13 UFC victories. On a 3-fight losing streak (Du Plessis, Strickland, Pereira) and 420 days inactive. Known for counter-striking brilliance and distance management. Pyfer is a rising MW contender at 6-1 with 3 KOs. On a 3-fight win streak. Only loss to Buckley early in his career. Aggressive forward pressure fighter with serious power at 29 years old.
The generational question: can the 36-year-old former champion halt a 3-fight skid against a hungry 29-year-old rising contender? Adesanya's counter-striking mastery vs Pyfer's forward pressure and power. Model sees a true coin flip at 55% Pyfer, but Adesanya's elite distance management and experience could be the difference. 420-day layoff is the biggest concern for Izzy.
- Adesanya on 3-fight losing streak, 420 days inactive
- Pyfer 3-fight win streak, heavy hands
- Adesanya's counter-striking vs Pyfer's aggression
- Generational shift question at middleweight
- Model pick'em at 55/45 for Pyfer
The breakdown
Grasso is a former UFC flyweight champion who submitted Valentina Shevchenko. Technical striker with crisp boxing. On a 2-fight losing streak after losing the title. 322 days inactive. Barber "The Future" is on a dominant 7-fight win streak with 4 KO wins. Aggressive pressure fighter who overwhelms opponents. Switch-stance with relentless cardio at just 27 years old.
Former champion vs rising star. Grasso's technical precision against Barber's relentless pressure and volume. Barber's 7-fight win streak and youth are significant factors. Model strongly favours Barber at 69.8% — her pressure style could overwhelm a declining Grasso. Decision at 74% is heavily favoured.
- Barber 7-fight win streak, 4 KOs
- Grasso 2-fight losing streak, 322 days inactive
- Barber's pressure vs Grasso's technique
- Model STRONG at 69.8% with +12.7pp edge
- Decision overwhelmingly favoured at 74%
The breakdown
Chiesa is a veteran grappler with 14 wins — all by decision in UFC records. Southpaw with a 3-fight win streak. Excellent chain wrestling and top control. On a strong run after early career struggles. Price "The Hybrid" has dropped to 8-10 with a 3-fight losing streak. Known for unorthodox striking and wild exchanges but has been outclassed recently.
Chiesa's grappling dominance vs Price's wild striking. Price on a 3-fight skid and Chiesa on a 3-fight win streak — momentum heavily favours Chiesa. Model sees significant edge at 65.2% vs the market's 50/50 line. One of the biggest market mispricings on the card.
- Chiesa 3-fight win streak, elite grappling
- Price 3-fight losing streak, being outclassed
- Market pick'em at +100/+100 — massive mispricing
- Model 65.2% vs market 50% = +15.2pp edge
- Chiesa's wrestling should neutralise Price
The breakdown
Erosa "Juicy J" is a veteran featherweight at 9-8 in the UFC. Southpaw with solid boxing and a 22% finish rate. Coming off a loss and 315 days inactive. Douglas is making his UFC debut — no UFC record yet. Orthodox stance at 5'9" with 72" reach. A prospect getting his first octagon test.
Veteran vs debutant. Erosa's experience and octagon IQ vs Douglas' fresh energy and unknown ceiling. The market strongly favours Douglas at -323, and the model agrees at 65.9%.
- Douglas making UFC debut — unknown quantity
- Erosa veteran with 17 UFC fights
- Market -323 for Douglas, model sees less edge
- Both have finishing ability
The breakdown
Abdul-Malik is an undefeated prospect at 3-0 with 2 KO wins and a 67% finish rate. Orthodox stance with an 80-inch reach and knockout power. On a 3-fight UFC win streak. Belgaroui is 1-0 in the UFC with a KO win in his debut. Tall at 6'6" with a kickboxing background. Former GLORY kickboxer making his mark in MMA.
Battle of unbeaten middleweights. Abdul-Malik's well-rounded game and takedown threat vs Belgaroui's size and kickboxing pedigree.
- Abdul-Malik 3-0 with 67% finish rate
- Belgaroui 6'6" former kickboxer
- Model 50.1% vs market 56.8% — line is off
- High finish probability — only 32% goes distance
The breakdown
McKinney "T.Wrecks" is known for explosive first-round finishes and wild exchanges. 4 KO wins in 7 victories, 57% finish rate. Switch-stance striker with serious power. Coming off a loss. Nelson is a durable Canadian veteran at 5-5 in the UFC. On a 1-fight win streak. Both fighters are switch-stance strikers who love to engage.
Two switch-stance fighters who love to engage. McKinney's explosive power vs Nelson's durability. Model sees it close at 56.8% McKinney, barely edging the market. This could be a quick finish or a war — McKinney fights are rarely boring.
- McKinney explosive first-round power
- Both switch-stance strikers
- Nelson durable but .500 record
- McKinney coming off a loss — motivation factor
- Model barely separates them at 56.8%
The breakdown
Bahamondes is a long, rangy lightweight with 3 KO wins and a 50% finish rate. Known for highlight-reel spinning attacks and his 6'3" frame at 155 lbs. Coming off a loss. Musayev is a former Rizin champion making a late career pivot to the UFC. 0-1 in the UFC after his debut loss. At 36, he's looking to establish himself against a significant size disadvantage.
Massive size mismatch — Bahamondes is 6'3" with 75" reach vs Musayev's 5'9" with 69" reach. The model is HIGH confidence at 78.2% for Bahamondes with strong edge over the market. Decision at 47% is the most likely method, but Bahamondes can finish with spinning attacks.
- 6-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage for Bahamondes
- Musayev 0-1 UFC, adapting from Rizin
- Bahamondes highlight-reel KO ability
- Model HIGH at 78.2% with +8.0pp edge
The breakdown
Hooper is a young grappler at 26 with 8 wins and a 25% finish rate. Southpaw with a 4-fight win streak before a recent loss. Known for creative submissions and a lanky frame. Gibson Jr. is 0-1 in the UFC after losing his debut. Coming off a short 105-day turnaround. Unknown stance fighter looking to get his first octagon win.
Hooper's grappling and experience should be the difference. The model strongly favours him at 74.1% against an opponent who lost his debut. Decision at 55% is the most likely outcome with Hooper looking to grind out a win. Gibson Jr.'s short turnaround after a loss is concerning.
- Hooper 8-4 with strong grappling base
- Gibson Jr. 0-1, lost UFC debut
- Model HIGH at 74.1% with +3.9pp edge
- Decision favoured at 55%
- Hooper's 4-inch height advantage
The breakdown
Tybura is a veteran heavyweight at 40 years old with 14-9. Grindy wrestler with 9 decision wins. Orthodox stance at 6'3". Coming off a loss and 203 days out. Fortune is making his UFC debut at 35 — no UFC record. Former Bellator fighter making the jump. Unknown physical stats available.
Veteran gatekeeper vs late-arriving debutant. Tybura's UFC experience and grindy style against Fortune's unknown ceiling. Model sees a true coin flip at 52.4% Tybura. Fortune being a UFC debutant at 35 is concerning.
- Tybura 14-9, veteran experience
- Fortune UFC debut at age 35
- True coin flip territory
- Tybura's grinding wrestling style
The breakdown
O'Neill is an Australian flyweight with 5 wins including 2 KOs. Orthodox striker with solid wrestling. Coming off a long 588-day layoff but won her last fight. Fernandes has 3 wins all by decision — 100% decision rate. Southpaw with a 3-fight win streak. Consistent but lacks finishing power.
O'Neill returning from a long layoff but with solid fundamentals. Model sees 61.7% vs the market's 50/50 — another significant mispricing. O'Neill's finishing ability vs Fernandes' pure decision style. Decision at 72% heavily favoured regardless of winner.
- O'Neill returning from 588-day layoff
- Fernandes 100% decision rate — no finishes
- Market pick'em but model sees 61.7% O'Neill
- Strong +11.7pp edge
- Decision overwhelmingly favoured at 72%
The breakdown
Stirling is an undefeated Kiwi prospect at 3-0 with all decisions in the UFC. Orthodox stance at 6'4" with a 79" reach. Trained at City Kickboxing (Adesanya, Volkanovski camp). On a 3-fight win streak. Lopes is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a loss and 301 days inactive. Orthodox striker at 6'2" with a 74" reach.
City Kickboxing prospect vs a fighter coming off a loss and long layoff. Stirling's size, reach, and training pedigree should be the difference.
- Stirling trained at City Kickboxing
- 3-0 undefeated with size advantage
- Lopes 301 days inactive, coming off loss
- KO at 43% is the most likely method
The breakdown
Thainara is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins by decision. 100% decision rate. Orthodox stance with consistent grinding style. On a 2-fight win streak and 182 days out. Brasil is 3-4 in the UFC on a 1-fight losing streak. Also 100% decision rate — neither fighter has a finish. This is an all-decision matchup between two Brazilian strawweights.
All-decision matchup. Both fighters have 100% decision rates. Thainara is the clear favourite at 80.1% per the model — her technical edge and unbeaten UFC record make this a LOCK. Decision at 56% is overwhelmingly favoured.
- Thainara 2-0, Brasil 3-4 — form gap is clear
- Both 100% decision rate fighters
- Model LOCK at 80.1% — highest confidence
- Market already tight at -500
- Decision at 56% is the most likely method