This Saturday Hooker vs Parnasse · Accor Arena Paris France See this week's picks →
Picks · Compare · Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann
Heavyweight · 3 rounds · Hooker vs Parnasse
12-0
Red corner
VS
24-11
Blue corner

The model's read of this fight

One honest, calibrated confidence split — a real, booked bout, so we show the number.

HIGH We predict Mario Pinto77% confident
Mario Pinto 77% Ryan Spann 23%

The grappling gap is real: Mario Pinto averages 2.38 takedowns per 15 min to 1.21. Net of it, the method model leans KO/TKO (44%), the model flags Mario Pinto at HIGH.

Built only from the striking / grappling rates and the method read shown on this page — career averages from public UFC statistics. If a number isn't in the data, it isn't in this summary.

Tale of the tape

Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

12-0Record24-11
NicknameSuperman
6' 5"Height6' 5"
79.0"Reach79.0"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
28Age35
265 lbs.Weight205 lbs.
PortugalNationalityUnited States
LisbonHometownBeaumont, Texas
Urban WarriorsFighting out ofFortis MMA
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Mario PintoRyan Spann
76
Striking
44
84
Defence
38
45
Grappling / TD
49
77 limited sample
Cardio
77
59 limited sample
Chin
40
68
Fight IQ
50
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Mario Pinto3 UFC fights · 76 landed

80.3%
HEAD
75.4%
10.5%
BODY
18.4%
9.2%
LEGS
6.2%

Ryan Spann16 UFC fights · 304 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Stat-by-stat

Mario Pinto (left) vs Ryan Spann (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
2.85
vs
3.11
Striking accuracy
69%
vs
39%
Strikes absorbed / min
1.93
vs
3.92
Striking defence
58%
vs
43%
Takedowns / 15 min
2.38
vs
1.21
Takedown accuracy
26%
vs
34%
Takedown defence
100%
vs
59%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.9
vs
1.7
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Live market

The market line next to the live prediction-market price — information only, not a bet call.

paymentsSportsbook line
Mario Pinto-270
Ryan Spann+257
Live · Polymarket
Mario Pinto72% · -251
Ryan Spann28% · +251
as of 2026-08-30T09:51:07Z · $147 liquidity. The implied chance is the market's number, not ours.

Go deeper

Want to compare two other fighters? The build-your-own head-to-head lets you stack any two fighters we hold data on side by side — tale of the tape, stat-by-stat and the FightIQ Metrics. What it can't show is a model read: we only publish a prediction on a booked bout, where the call is timestamped before the cage door closes.
← All matchups to compare