10:05
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues
Middleweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Anthony Hernandez over Gregory Rodrigues at 73% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 42% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 20%, decision 42%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 42% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 10:05.
That read carries 9.2pp of edge above the market on Anthony Hernandez.
Live on Polymarket, Anthony Hernandez is priced around 66%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 38% | 49% |
| SUB YES | 20% | 27% |
| DEC YES | 42% | 24% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 42% | 24% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 76% | 60% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 54% | 46% |
The facts, side by side — Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues.
| 15-3 | Record | 19-6 |
| Fluffy | Nickname | Robocop |
| 6' 0" | Height | 6' 3" |
| 75.0" | Reach | 75.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 32 | Age | 34 |
| 185 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Brazil |
| Dunnigan, California | Hometown | Porto Velho, Rondonia |
| MMA Gold Fight Team | Fighting out of | Kill Cliff FC |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Anthony Hernandez12 UFC fights · 620 landed
Gregory Rodrigues13 UFC fights · 642 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Anthony Hernandez (left) vs Gregory Rodrigues (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6'0" orthodox wrestle-grinder with a 9-2 record, age 32. Standout metric: hits 49% of takedown attempts; averages 388s of control time per fight. Form: last 5: WWWWW · on a 5-fight win streak · 196 days off · Elo 1587.
6'3" orthodox power striker with a 9-3 record, age 34. Standout metric: lands 5.6 significant strikes per minute; defends 75% of takedowns. Form: last 5: WWLWW · on a 2-fight win streak · 112 days off · Elo 1569.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →