Mairon Santos vs Nathaniel Wood — compare, tale of the tape & prediction

The model's read of this fight

One honest, calibrated confidence split — a real, booked bout, so we show the number.

MED We predict Mairon Santos — 61% confident

Mairon Santos 61% Nathaniel Wood 39%

On the feet Nathaniel Wood lands more volume — 5.64 strikes a minute to 3.33. The grappling gap is real: Nathaniel Wood averages 1.35 takedowns per 15 min to 0. Net of it, the method model leans a decision (62%), the model flags Mairon Santos at MED.

Built only from the striking / grappling rates and the method read shown on this page — career averages from public UFC statistics. If a number isn't in the data, it isn't in this summary.

Tale of the tape

Mairon Santos vs Nathaniel Wood — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

18-1	Record	23-6
The Legend	Nickname	The Prospect
5' 7"	Height	5' 6"
72.0"▲	Reach	69.0"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
26	Age	33
145 lbs.	Weight	145 lbs.
Brazil	Nationality	England
Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro	Hometown	London
Xtreme Couture	Fighting out of	Great Britain Top Team

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Mairon SantosNathaniel Wood

Striking

Defence

n/a

Grappling / TD

Cardio

Chin

Fight IQ

Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Mairon Santos4 UFC fights · 156 landed

49.3%

HEAD

55.1%

26.3%

BODY

10.5%

24.4%

LEGS

34.4%

Nathaniel Wood14 UFC fights · 1,069 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Stat-by-stat

Mairon Santos (left) vs Nathaniel Wood (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

3.33

5.64

Striking accuracy

48%

51%

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

4.25

Striking defence

65%

54%

Takedowns / 15 min

1.35

Takedown accuracy

48%

Takedown defence

69%

73%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.5

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Live market

The market line next to the live prediction-market price — information only, not a bet call.

paymentsSportsbook line

Mairon Santos-134

Nathaniel Wood+108

Live · Polymarket

Mairon Santos50% · -102

Nathaniel Wood50% · +102

as of 2026-08-30T09:51:07Z · $1,084 liquidity. The implied chance is the market's number, not ours.

Go deeper

Mairon Santos's page → Nathaniel Wood's page → Full fight breakdown → Full Hooker vs Parnasse card →

Want to compare two other fighters? The build-your-own head-to-head lets you stack any two fighters we hold data on side by side — tale of the tape, stat-by-stat and the FightIQ Metrics. What it can't show is a model read: we only publish a prediction on a booked bout, where the call is timestamped before the cage door closes.

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