5:24
median time
Picks · Nurmagomedov vs Song · Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu Ce
Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Liu Ce over Levi Rodrigues Jr. at 56% confidence — a lean.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 45% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 23%, decision 32%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 21% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 5:24.
That read carries 6.2pp of edge below the market on Liu Ce.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
The facts, side by side — Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu Ce.
| 6-0 | Record | — |
| 6' 0" | Height | — |
| 76.0" | Reach | — |
| Orthodox | Stance | — |
| 29 | Age | — |
| 205 lbs. | Weight | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Levi Rodrigues Jr. (left) vs Liu Ce (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
Levi Rodrigues Jr. makes his UFC debut against Felipe Franco in Oklahoma City. The light heavyweight steps into the Octagon for the first time with a 0-0 promotional record. He meets an opponent who has one UFC appearance behind him, a small experience gap in an otherwise even matchup between recent additions to the roster. Rodrigues arrives without an Octagon body of work for fans to study, which leaves his debut an open question. A first UFC win would give him an immediate platform in a thin light heavyweight division. Rodrigues will aim to make an early impression and prove he belongs at this level. He is one of several fighters taking a first walk to the Octagon on this card.
No profile written for Liu Ce yet. We would rather leave this empty than fill it.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →