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Picks · Compare · Hector Santiago vs Lawrence Lui
Bantamweight · 3 rounds · Nurmagomedov vs Song
HS
Red corner
VS
8-1
Blue corner

The model's read of this fight

One honest, calibrated confidence split — a real, booked bout, so we show the number.

HIGH We predict Lawrence Lui62% confident
Hector Santiago 38% Lawrence Lui 62%

Net of it, the method model leans a decision (38%), the model flags Lawrence Lui at HIGH.

Built only from the striking / grappling rates and the method read shown on this page — career averages from public UFC statistics. If a number isn't in the data, it isn't in this summary.

Tale of the tape

Hector Santiago vs Lawrence Lui — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

Record8-1
Height5' 7"
Reach72.0"
StanceOrthodox
Age30
Weight135 lbs.
NationalityHong Kong
Fighting out ofCity Kickboxing
partial Vitals for Hector Santiago are pending — shown as “—”.
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Hector SantiagoLawrence Lui
n/a
Striking
52
n/a
Defence
66
n/a
Grappling / TD
73
n/a
Cardio
72 limited sample
n/a
Chin
59 limited sample
n/a
Fight IQ
64
Our read — derived, not official stats.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Lawrence Lui

Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.

HEAD78.9%ACC 32%BODY11.5%FIELD 21%LEGS9.6%FIELD 16%
FightIQ read Head-hunter 78.9% of everything he lands goes upstairs — +16.0 on the field average.
Share by zonevs field average
HEAD
78.9% acc 32%+16.0 vs field
BODY
11.5%−9.3 vs field
LEGS
9.6%−6.7 vs field
Where the offence happens
DISTANCE 75%CLINCH 12%GROUND 14%

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.

Limited sample1 UFC fights · 52 landed

Stat-by-stat

Hector Santiago (left) vs Lawrence Lui (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
vs
3.72
Striking accuracy
vs
39%
Strikes absorbed / min
vs
3.32
Striking defence
vs
60%
Takedowns / 15 min
vs
5.3
Takedown accuracy
vs
40%
Takedown defence
vs
100%
Sub attempts / 15 min
vs
0
partial Career stats for Hector Santiago are pending — shown as “—”.
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Live market

The market line next to the live prediction-market price — information only, not a bet call.

paymentsSportsbook line
Hector Santiago+250
Lawrence Lui-277
Live · Polymarket
Hector Santiago28% · +251
Lawrence Lui72% · -251
as of 2026-08-25T04:57:06Z · $111 liquidity. The implied chance is the market's number, not ours.

Go deeper

Want to compare two other fighters? The build-your-own head-to-head lets you stack any two fighters we hold data on side by side — tale of the tape, stat-by-stat and the FightIQ Metrics. What it can't show is a model read: we only publish a prediction on a booked bout, where the call is timestamped before the cage door closes.
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