6:15
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse
Featherweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Marcio Barbosa over Ryan Kuse at 68% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 38% (KO/TKO 38%, submission 34%, decision 28%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 26% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 6:15.
That read carries 21.5pp of edge below the market on Marcio Barbosa.
Live on Polymarket, Marcio Barbosa is priced around 88%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 38% | 81% |
| SUB YES | 34% | 7% |
| DEC YES | 28% | 12% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 26% | 12% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 51% | 28% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 26% | 12% |
The facts, side by side — Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse.
| 18-2 | Record | — |
| Ticoto | Nickname | — |
| 5' 6" | Height | — |
| 70.0" | Reach | — |
| Orthodox | Stance | — |
| 28 | Age | — |
| 145 lbs. | Weight | — |
| Brazil | Nationality | — |
| Santana, Amapa | Hometown | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Marcio Barbosa (left) vs Ryan Kuse (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Profiles for Marcio Barbosa and Ryan Kuse live on their fighter pages — neither has written prose on file yet, and we don't publish filler.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →