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Picks · Compare · Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano
Welterweight · 3 rounds · Hooker vs Parnasse
15-2
Red corner
VS
13-4
Blue corner

The model's read of this fight

One honest, calibrated confidence split — a real, booked bout, so we show the number.

HIGH We predict Daniil Donchenko70% confident
Daniil Donchenko 70% Punahele Soriano 30%

On the feet Daniil Donchenko lands more volume — 7.15 strikes a minute to 4.42. The grappling gap is real: Punahele Soriano averages 1.97 takedowns per 15 min to 0.77. Net of it, the method model leans KO/TKO (55%), the model flags Daniil Donchenko at HIGH.

Built only from the striking / grappling rates and the method read shown on this page — career averages from public UFC statistics. If a number isn't in the data, it isn't in this summary.

Tale of the tape

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

15-2Record13-4
NicknamePuna
5' 11"Height5' 11"
71.0"Reach72.0"
OrthodoxStanceSouthpaw
25Age33
170 lbs.Weight170 lbs.
UkraineNationality
KyivHometown
Tiger Muay ThaiFighting out of
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Daniil DonchenkoPunahele Soriano
95
Striking
84
83
Defence
40
27
Grappling / TD
46
58 limited sample
Cardio
57
72 limited sample
Chin
68
67
Fight IQ
59
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Daniil Donchenko3 UFC fights · 210 landed

42.8%
HEAD
79.2%
26.2%
BODY
18.6%
31.0%
LEGS
2.2%

Punahele Soriano11 UFC fights · 490 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Stat-by-stat

Daniil Donchenko (left) vs Punahele Soriano (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
7.15
vs
4.42
Striking accuracy
60%
vs
53%
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
vs
3.31
Striking defence
72%
vs
47%
Takedowns / 15 min
0.77
vs
1.97
Takedown accuracy
33%
vs
51%
Takedown defence
75%
vs
48%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0
vs
0.1
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Live market

The market line next to the live prediction-market price — information only, not a bet call.

paymentsSportsbook line
Daniil Donchenko-215
Punahele Soriano+172
Live · Polymarket
Daniil Donchenko68% · -217
Punahele Soriano32% · +217
as of 2026-08-30T09:51:07Z · $404 liquidity. The implied chance is the market's number, not ours.

Go deeper

Want to compare two other fighters? The build-your-own head-to-head lets you stack any two fighters we hold data on side by side — tale of the tape, stat-by-stat and the FightIQ Metrics. What it can't show is a model read: we only publish a prediction on a booked bout, where the call is timestamped before the cage door closes.
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