9:09
median time
Picks · Hooker vs Parnasse · Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano
Welterweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Daniil Donchenko over Punahele Soriano at 70% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 55% (KO/TKO 55%, submission 15%, decision 30%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 37% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:09.
That read carries 5.3pp of edge above the market on Daniil Donchenko.
Live on Polymarket, Daniil Donchenko is priced around 68%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Daniil Donchenko's implied chance moved up from 50% to 68% (+18.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Donchenko — sportsbook consensus | 65.0% | 64.6% | 66.4% | 66.4% | +1.4pp |
| Punahele Soriano — sportsbook consensus | 35.0% | 33.6% | 35.4% | 33.6% | −1.4pp |
| Daniil Donchenko — Polymarket | 50.0% | 50.0% | 69.0% | 68.5% | +18.5pp |
| Punahele Soriano — Polymarket | 50.0% | 31.0% | 50.0% | 31.5% | −18.5pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 55% | 33% |
| SUB YES | 15% | 33% |
| DEC YES | 30% | 33% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 37% | 33% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 67% | 33% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 43% | 33% |
The facts, side by side — Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano.
| 15-2 | Record | 13-4 |
| — | Nickname | Puna |
| 5' 11" | Height | 5' 11" |
| 71.0" | Reach | 72.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 25 | Age | 33 |
| 170 lbs. | Weight | 170 lbs. |
| Ukraine | Nationality | — |
| Kyiv | Hometown | — |
| Tiger Muay Thai | Fighting out of | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Daniil Donchenko3 UFC fights · 210 landed
Punahele Soriano11 UFC fights · 490 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Daniil Donchenko
Punahele Soriano
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (4.97 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Daniil Donchenko (left) vs Punahele Soriano (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 11" orthodox volume boxer campaigning at Welterweight. 3 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 1 decision.
5' 11" southpaw power striker campaigning at Welterweight. 7 UFC wins — 4 KO/TKO, 3 decision.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →