Round 1
10 of 38
Sig.
strikes
strikes
36 of 57
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:18
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 9Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 31Clinch 4Ground 1
VSSettled
The story going in
- Carries 20 points more takedown defence than Nurgozhay.
- Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
- Carries 26 points more striking defence than Tobias.
14-3
Record
12-2
−6 yr22
Age
28
6' 2"
Height
6' 2"
74″
Reach
74″
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Chute Boxe Monstro
Gym
Tobet Top Team
Curitiba, Parana
From
Astana
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Rafael Tobias
70.4% confidentHIGH
The fight
Diyar Nurgozhay
LOSS✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 2
16 of 34
Sig.
strikes
strikes
27 of 46
1 of 6
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
1:44
Control
1:03
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 9
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 19Clinch 1Ground 7
Round 31 sub attemptEnded 5:00
13 of 29
Sig.
strikes
strikes
31 of 40
1 of 2
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:47
Control
0:07
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 10Clinch 3Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 31Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
Judges’ scorecards
Every judge’s round, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score.
Official card
Unanimous Decision
Referee · Herb Dean
Rafael TobiasDiyar Nurgozhay
| Judge | R1 | R2 | R3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Cartlidge2.1 avg spread · 45% wide | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 27–30 |
| David Lethaby2.0 avg spread · 43% wide | 9–10 | 10–9 | 9–10 | 28–29 |
| Tony Weeks2.1 avg spread · 49% wide | 9–10 | 9–10 | 10–9 | 28–29 |
Media cards — 11 scored, Rafael Tobias first · unofficial
Ryan Frederick WrestlingObserver.com27–30
Keith Shillan Sherdog.com27–30
Jake Noecker Home of Fight27–30
Steve Duncan mma.uno27–30
Matthew Wells MMAJunkie.com27–30
Jay Pettry Sherdog.com27–30
Ben Duffy Sherdog.com27–30
Dayne Fox Sherdog.com27–30
John Pollock POST Wrestling27–30
Zane Simon The MMA Vivisection28–29
Combat Press.com28–29
Fan vote · unofficial
30-27 Nurgozhay · 50%29-28 Nurgozhay · 38%29-28 Tobias · 6%30-28 Nurgozhay · 3%
32 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.
Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.
Still to come on this page
Named rather than hidden. It is built from data already on disk and lands in the next pass of this build-out.
The market story coming in this build-out
What the price did in the week before the cage door shut, with the moment our pick was frozen marked on it. Where we captured no price history for a bout, this panel will say so rather than draw a line that was never there.