The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomA 37% underdog call lands as the model's card grade slipsThe model picked Alberto Montes against the odds and he submitted Ricky Turcios in Round 2. The rest of the card was a softer night, and we grade it in full.
The breakdown
Oliveira "Do Bronx" is a former UFC Lightweight champion with the most submission wins in UFC history. His grappling is world-class, blending relentless pressure with a devastating ground game. Holloway "Blessed" is the former Featherweight king, moving up to 155 after a legendary FW run that included the iconic BMF knockout of Justin Gaethje. Known for volume striking and an iron chin.
Oliveira brings elite grappling and submission threat — 83.3% of his wins come by decision in UFC tenure, showing newfound patience. Holloway is the volume king with 47.8% KO rate, but moving up to Lightweight where Oliveira has a natural size and power edge. The first fight went to decision and this rematch figures to be another chess match at range.
- Oliveira former LW champ with record UFC submissions
- Holloway moving up from FW — natural size disadvantage
- First fight was a close battle — stylistic familiarity
- Oliveira 5-inch reach advantage at 74 inches
- Both on 1-fight win streaks, high motivation for gold
The breakdown
Borralho is a rising MW contender with 7-1 UFC record. Technical southpaw who mixes striking and grappling effectively. 85.7% of his wins by decision, showing a grinding, point-fighting style. De Ridder was a dominant ONE Championship double champion before transitioning to UFC. At 6'4" with 78" reach, he brings elite size for the division.
Borralho is the more proven UFC commodity at 7-1, but the market has him heavily favoured at -256 while FightIQ sees only 58.0% probability. De Ridder's size and grappling pedigree from ONE Championship make him a dangerous underdog. Both coming off losses, adding urgency.
- Market prices Borralho at 68.3% vs model's 58.0% — huge gap
- De Ridder massive 3-inch height and reach advantage
- Both on losing streaks, adding desperation
- Borralho decision-heavy style (85.7%) suggests grinding fight
The breakdown
Rosas Jr. is the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC, debuting at just 18. Now 21, he carries a 4-fight win streak and has become one of the most exciting prospects in the bantamweight division. Switch-stance striker with improving grappling. Font is a veteran boxer with heavy hands — 50% KO rate. At 38, he is in the twilight of his career but remains dangerous with his crisp boxing.
Youth vs experience. Rosas Jr. at 21 is surging with a 4-fight streak and has 17 years on Font. The model strongly favours Rosas at 73.5% with a +7.5pp edge over market. Font coming off a loss and his 38-year-old chin may be compromised against the young phenom's relentless pace.
- Rosas Jr. 4-fight win streak, only 21 years old
- Font is 38 with declining chin — recent loss
- Model 73.5% vs market 66.0% — strong +7.5pp edge
- Rosas Jr. switch-stance creates problems for boxing-first fighters
- Font's 4-inch reach advantage keeps it competitive
The breakdown
Dober is a KO artist with 71.4% finish rate — 10 KO wins in his career. Southpaw with devastating power in close. Coming off a win but inconsistent form (1-3 before that). Johnson is a UFC veteran with wins over Tony Ferguson, Dustin Poirier, and Edson Barboza. On a 3-fight win streak at 39, proving the old guard still has fight left. Slick boxer with underrated speed.
Two veteran lightweights in a true toss-up. Dober brings KO power but is inconsistent with a 14-11 record. Johnson is riding a 3-fight streak and has beaten elite competition throughout his career. The model sees this as dead even at 52-48, matching the market almost exactly.
- Johnson 3-fight win streak vs Dober's inconsistency
- Dober 71.4% finish rate — always dangerous
- Johnson's speed advantage at range
- Both southpaw — awkward stylistic matchup
- Model and market agree: genuine coin flip
The breakdown
Rodrigues "Robocop" is a powerful middleweight with 66.7% KO rate. At 6'3" with long reach, he uses his size effectively and has won 2 straight. Technical striker with KO power in both hands. Ferreira is on a 3-fight win streak with 50% KO rate. Compact and aggressive, but gives up significant size to Rodrigues in this matchup.
Rodrigues has the clear physical edge at 6'3" vs 5'10" and a 3-inch reach advantage. Both are KO artists but Rodrigues' size and recent form give him the edge. Model at 63.6% barely clears the market line — this is essentially a pick backed by the size differential.
- Rodrigues 5-inch height and 3-inch reach advantage
- Both on multi-fight win streaks
- KO/TKO most likely method at 48.1%
- Model 63.6% almost exactly matches market 63.6%
- Brazilian derby adds emotional intensity
The breakdown
Garbrandt "No Love" is a former UFC Bantamweight champion known for his explosive KO power — 66.7% finish rate. However, he has lost 4 of his last 5 and his chin has become suspect. At 34, this may be a last chance to prove he still belongs. Xiao Long is relatively new to the UFC at 1-2 with one KO win. Young at 27 with a 5-inch reach advantage over Garbrandt.
The model slightly favours Xiao Long at 54.9% as a pick'em — both priced at even money. Garbrandt's decline has been steep (2 consecutive losses) while Long has youth and reach on his side. However, Garbrandt's championship pedigree and power make this genuinely unpredictable.
- Garbrandt on 2-fight losing streak, declining
- Xiao Long 5-inch reach advantage
- Garbrandt's championship experience still counts
- Both have KO power — 35.9% KO probability
The breakdown
Donte Johnson is 1-0 in the UFC with a decision win in his debut. Southpaw with long 74-inch reach for his height. Still unproven but showed composure. Brundage is a UFC veteran at 5-7 — on a 2-fight losing streak with 60% KO rate on his wins. Experienced but has lost more than he's won.
Massive favourite at -625 but the model sees only 79.0% probability — the market is overpricing Johnson. Johnson is unproven with just 1 UFC fight while Brundage at least has octagon experience despite his record.
- Johnson -625 but model only 79.0% — market too wide
- Brundage +440 has +3.3pp model edge
- Johnson only 1 UFC fight — small sample
- Brundage 60% KO rate when he wins
- SUB at 35.3% is the top method — grappling fight expected
The breakdown
Turcios won The Ultimate Fighter but has struggled since, going 2-3 in the UFC with a 2-fight losing streak. All wins by decision, 0% finish rate. Coming off a 413-day layoff. Montes is making his UFC debut — an unknown quantity. The model gives him a slight edge at 62.4% based on the market pricing.
Turcios is the known quantity but trending badly with a 2-fight skid and long layoff. Montes is a complete unknown making his debut, but the market and model both favour him. Decision at 48.7% is the most likely outcome — expect a grinding fight.
- Turcios on 2-fight losing streak with 413-day layoff
- Montes UFC debut — complete unknown
- Model 62.4% matches market 62.5% exactly
- Decision most likely at 48.7%
- Turcios 100% decision rate — never finishes fights
The breakdown
Tumendemberel is 1-1 in the UFC with a decision win in his last fight. Mongolian grappler with 4-inch reach advantage over Durden. Durden is on a brutal 3-fight losing streak at 6-7 — trending toward the exit. Decision-heavy fighter at 83.3% with limited finishing ability.
Model favours Tumendemberel at 61.0% with a +3.7pp edge over market. Durden's 3-fight losing streak and below-.500 record make him vulnerable. Tumendemberel's reach advantage and recent form suggest he can outpoint the fading veteran.
- Durden on 3-fight losing streak, 6-7 record
- Tumendemberel 4-inch reach advantage
- Model 61.0% vs market 57.3% — moderate edge
- Both decision-heavy fighters — goes to judges
- Tumendemberel coming off a win, momentum matters
The breakdown
Su Mudaerji is a flyweight with 5-4 UFC record. Southpaw with a 10-inch reach advantage over Aguilar. Won 2 straight after a 3-fight skid, showing signs of a turnaround. Aguilar has a 4-2 record with a recent win. Compact at 5'4" but effective, making up for size with aggression and pace.
Massive physical mismatch on paper — Mudaerji has a 4-inch height and 10-inch reach advantage. Model gives him 57.3% in what the market prices as a pure pick'em.
- Mudaerji 10-inch reach advantage — enormous
- Market prices as 50/50, model sees 57.3%
- Mudaerji on 2-fight win streak
- Aguilar's recent form (4-2) keeps it competitive
- Decision 52.9% most likely — grinding affair
The breakdown
Nurgozhay is 0-2 in the UFC and struggling to find his footing at light heavyweight. Southpaw with decent size but has lost both fights. Tobias is just 22 making his UFC debut — an unknown but favoured by the market at -208. Complete wildcard with no UFC data.
Model strongly favours Tobias at 70.7% with +6.1pp edge over market. Nurgozhay's 0-2 record makes him vulnerable — he hasn't shown he belongs at this level. Tobias is unknown but the market and model both see clear upside. KO at 38.3% is the top method.
- Nurgozhay 0-2 in UFC — struggling
- Tobias debut but favoured at -208
- Model 70.7% vs market 64.6% — strong +6.1pp edge
- KO/TKO most likely at 38.3%
- Under 2.5 rounds at 72% — likely early finish
The breakdown
Bellato is 1-1 in the UFC with a KO win and a loss. 100% finish rate on wins — pure finisher. Coming off a loss and looking to bounce back. Fernandez is making his UFC debut, favoured by the market at -233. The model sees only 57.8% for Fernandez — much closer than the market suggests.
Market heavily favours Fernandez at -233 but model sees only 57.8% probability. KO/TKO at 41.2% is the most likely method in this light heavyweight clash.
- Fernandez -233 but model only 57.8% — market overpriced
- KO/TKO at 41.2% most likely outcome
- Both relatively new to UFC — limited data
- Bellato 100% finish rate — when he wins, he finishes