8:56
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves
Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Carli Judice over Jeisla Chaves at 66% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 51% (KO/TKO 29%, submission 20%, decision 51%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 52% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 8:56.
That read carries 16.9pp of edge below the market on Carli Judice.
Live on Polymarket, Carli Judice is priced around 84%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 29% | 38% |
| SUB YES | 20% | 19% |
| DEC YES | 51% | 43% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 52% | 43% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 74% | 58% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 54% | 51% |
The facts, side by side — Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves.
| 6-2 | Record | 7-0 |
| Crispy | Nickname | — |
| 5' 7" | Height | 5' 6" |
| 68.0" | Reach | 68.0" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 27 | Age | 29 |
| 125 lbs. | Weight | 125 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Brazil |
| Lafayette, Louisiana | Hometown | Pocoes, Bahia |
| Headkicks MMA | Fighting out of | Gomes Fight Team |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Carli Judice4 UFC fights · 374 landed
Jeisla Chaves1 UFC fights · 64 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Carli Judice (left) vs Jeisla Chaves (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5'7" southpaw power striker with a 2-1 record, age 26. Standout metric: lands 10.5 significant strikes per minute; hits 50% of takedown attempts. Form: last 5: LWW · on a 2-fight win streak · 217 days off · Elo 1511.
No profile written for Jeisla Chaves yet. We would rather leave this empty than fill it.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →