The full card, graded
The breakdown
Burns is a former title challenger on a brutal four-fight skid, the worst run of his career, and at 39 the window is closing fast. Malott is the rising Canadian hometown favourite with a 3-fight win streak and significant size advantages at 6'1" with a 73" reach. Burns has been fighting at the highest level of the division while Malott's wins came against lower-ranked opposition.
- Burns on a 4-fight losing streak at age 39 — career-worst form
- Malott has significant size advantage (3" height, 2" reach) and hometown crowd
- Burns' 80% decision rate vs Malott's 67% — both grinders but Burns especially so
- Burns 336-day layoff vs Malott 182 days — ring rust factor for the veteran
The breakdown
A bantamweight co-main between two fighters heading in opposite directions. Phillips was on a 3-fight win streak before dropping two straight, while Jourdain has won two in a row after a rough patch. Phillips has better reach at 72" and is the more technical striker, but Jourdain fights from a switch stance and brings unpredictability. Both are 30 years old and carry similar decision-heavy records. The model barely separates them at 55.7% for Jourdain.
- Phillips coming off 2 losses vs Jourdain riding 2-fight win streak — momentum matters
- Phillips has 3" reach advantage (72" vs 69") in a striking-heavy matchup
- Jourdain fights from switch stance adding unpredictability to the striking exchanges
- Both are 83%/75% decision fighters — expect this to go to the scorecards
- Model sees only 55.7% for Jourdain — genuinely close fight at LOW confidence
The breakdown
A fascinating stylistic matchup between two long, rangy lightweights. Nallo makes his UFC debut at 36 after building hype on the regional circuit with a 75" reach and orthodox stance. Herbert has octagon experience but a losing 3-5 record with an alternating win-loss pattern. Herbert's 392-day layoff is significant — over a year out of competition. Both fighters are in their late 30s, making this a now-or-never fight for both careers.
- Nallo making UFC debut at 36 — late arrival but carries dangerous reach at 75"
- Herbert 3-5 in UFC with alternating LWLWL pattern and 392-day layoff
- Herbert has slight size edge at 6'1" / 77" reach vs Nallo's 6'0" / 75"
- No UFC data for Nallo creates genuine uncertainty despite model's 58% lean
The breakdown
Two women's flyweight grinders who have never been finished inside the octagon — both carry a 100% decision rate in their UFC careers. Silva is younger at 32 and has a quicker turnaround at 133 days.
- Both fighters have 100% decision rate — this fight is almost certainly going the distance
- Jasudavicius significantly overpriced by market (72.9%) vs model (61.6%) — 11.3pp gap
- Jasudavicius has size edge at 5'7" / 68" reach but both are orthodox grinders
- Both coming off losses — neither has momentum advantage
The breakdown
A classic veteran-vs-prospect matchup. Moises has 15 UFC fights but an alternating LWLWL pattern that screams inconsistency, plus an 87.5% decision rate that means he rarely finishes. Young is only 25 with just 2 UFC fights but won his last outing and has the youth advantage. Identical physical dimensions at 5'9" / 70" reach.
- Young is 6 years younger (25 vs 31) with upward trajectory vs Moises' inconsistency
- Identical physical dimensions — this comes down to skill and cardio
- Moises' 87.5% decision rate and LWLWL form suggest a grinding, low-output style
The breakdown
Buzukja returns after a massive 602-day layoff with a 1-3 UFC record and a switch stance. His lone win came by KO — 100% finish rate but only 1 fight's worth of data. Barbosa makes his UFC debut as a heavy favourite at -426, meaning the market sees him as significantly more skilled from his regional performances. The model agrees at 72% for Barbosa but thinks the market is slightly overpricing him, creating a small edge on the Buzukja underdog side.
- Buzukja's 602-day layoff is the longest on the card — extreme ring rust concern
- Barbosa is a UFC debutant priced as a -426 favourite — market sees clear skill gap
- Buzukja fights from switch stance and has 100% finish rate (1 KO from 1 win)
- Zero octagon data for Barbosa creates uncertainty despite strong regional reputation
The breakdown
Leblanc makes his UFC debut against Valentin who is 0-3 in the octagon and has never won a professional UFC fight.
- Leblanc is a debutant but any unknown is statistically better than a known 0-3 fighter
- Model predicts KO/TKO as most likely method at 43% — expect a finish
- Under 2.5 rounds at 70% — the model thinks this ends early
The breakdown
Boser returns after an extraordinary 987-day layoff — nearly three years out of competition. He has a .500 record at 5-5 with 60% of his wins by KO, showing real heavyweight power. Saricam makes his UFC debut with zero octagon data. Both are in their mid-30s. The model slightly favours Saricam at 56.6% largely because of Boser's extreme layoff and inconsistent record, but this is genuinely a coin flip with massive uncertainty on both sides.
- Boser's 987-day layoff (nearly 3 years) is the most extreme ring rust factor on the card
- Boser has 60% KO rate — real heavyweight power when he does win
- Saricam is a complete unknown at UFC level — debutant uncertainty is extreme
- Model barely separates them (56.6% vs 43.4%) — LOW confidence for a reason
- Heavyweight fights are inherently volatile — one punch changes everything
The breakdown
Two women's bantamweights with identical physical dimensions (5'9" / 68" reach) but divergent trajectories. Croden's lone win came by KO — she has finishing power — but she's coming off a loss.
- Identical dimensions (5'9" / 68" reach) — style and skill will be the differentiator
- Croden has finishing power (100% KO rate) but small sample of 1 win
- Zhelezniakova's 301-day layoff is concerning but she has the better recent form (WLW vs WL)
- Decision at 71% — expect a grinding fight that goes the distance
The breakdown
Raposo at 27 has the youth advantage but a 1-2 record and significant physical disadvantages — 3" shorter with 5" less reach. Nascimento has won all his fights by decision (100% decision rate) so expect a grinding, technical affair. The model sees this as a clear Nascimento fight at 65.7%.
- Nascimento on a 4-fight win streak — strong momentum and proven consistency
- Raposo has major physical disadvantages: 3" height and 5" reach deficit
- Nascimento's 100% decision rate means he controls fights but doesn't finish
The breakdown
Aldrich is the UFC veteran with 16 fights and a 90% decision rate — she knows how to grind out wins on the scorecards. Horth has the momentum with a 2-fight win streak and a much shorter layoff (126 days vs Aldrich's 413). Horth is the hometown-adjacent Canadian fighter.
- Aldrich's 413-day layoff is significant — over a year out of competition
- Horth on a 2-fight win streak with momentum and shorter turnaround
- Aldrich's 90% decision rate means she drags fights into grinding territory
- Decision at 76% — one of the highest distance probabilities on the card
The breakdown
A genuine toss-up that the model barely separates. Castaneda is a UFC veteran at 4-4 but on a 2-fight losing streak with a 357-day layoff. Vologdin is a 25-year-old debutant with a massive physical disadvantage — 3" shorter with 6" less reach. Despite that, the market slightly favours Vologdin at -130, and the model agrees at 52.7%. Castaneda's experience edge is offset by his declining form and the physical mismatch going the other way.
- True toss-up at 52.7% — the model has almost no confidence in either side
- Vologdin has severe physical disadvantages at 5'3" / 65" reach
- Castaneda on a 2-fight losing streak with 357-day layoff — momentum is gone
- Vologdin is a 25-year-old debutant — youth and unknown upside vs veteran decline
- Sub at 26.9% is unusually high — grappling exchanges could be decisive
The breakdown
Siraj makes his UFC debut as a heavy favourite at -263 against Yannis who lost his only UFC fight. The model predicts a finish — under 2.5 rounds at 69% — with a live three-way between KO, SUB, and DEC all within 6 percentage points of each other.
- Model 75.6% vs market 68.8% — the market is underpricing Siraj's advantage
- Under 2.5 rounds at 69% — model expects an early finish
- Live three-way method split: KO 30%, SUB 33%, DEC 37% — anything can happen