The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomBurns vs. Malott recap: the model called the upset and still graded out flatMike Malott stopped Gilbert Burns by KO/TKO in the main event, a result our model flagged at high confidence despite giving Malott just a 22% win probability. The rest of the card was a coin flip: 7 of 12, 58%.
The breakdown
Burns is a former title challenger on a brutal four-fight skid, the worst run of his career, and at 39 the window is closing fast. Malott is the rising Canadian hometown favourite with a 3-fight win streak and significant size advantages at 6'1" with a 73" reach. The Elo ratings are nearly identical (1620 vs 1619) which tells you the model sees Burns' experience balancing Malott's trajectory. Burns has been fighting at the highest level of the division while Malott's wins came against lower-ranked opposition.
- Burns on a 4-fight losing streak at age 39 — career-worst form
- Malott has significant size advantage (3" height, 2" reach) and hometown crowd
- Nearly identical Elo ratings suggest closer fight than odds indicate
- Burns' 80% decision rate vs Malott's 67% — both grinders but Burns especially so
- Burns 336-day layoff vs Malott 182 days — ring rust factor for the veteran
The breakdown
A bantamweight co-main between two fighters heading in opposite directions. Phillips was on a 3-fight win streak before dropping two straight, while Jourdain has won two in a row after a rough patch. Phillips has better reach at 72" and is the more technical striker, but Jourdain fights from a switch stance and brings unpredictability. Both are 30 years old and carry similar decision-heavy records. The model barely separates them at 55.7% for Jourdain.
- Phillips coming off 2 losses vs Jourdain riding 2-fight win streak — momentum matters
- Phillips has 3" reach advantage (72" vs 69") in a striking-heavy matchup
- Jourdain fights from switch stance adding unpredictability to the striking exchanges
- Both are 83%/75% decision fighters — expect this to go to the scorecards
- Model sees only 55.7% for Jourdain — genuinely close fight at LOW confidence
The breakdown
A fascinating stylistic matchup between two long, rangy lightweights. Nallo makes his UFC debut at 36 after building hype on the regional circuit with a 75" reach and orthodox stance. Herbert has octagon experience but a losing 3-5 record with an alternating win-loss pattern. Herbert's 392-day layoff is significant — over a year out of competition. Both fighters are in their late 30s, making this a now-or-never fight for both careers.
- Nallo making UFC debut at 36 — late arrival but carries dangerous reach at 75"
- Herbert 3-5 in UFC with alternating LWLWL pattern and 392-day layoff
- Herbert has slight size edge at 6'1" / 77" reach vs Nallo's 6'0" / 75"
- Nallo starts at default 1500 Elo vs Herbert's 1478 — model slightly favours the debutant
- No UFC data for Nallo creates genuine uncertainty despite model's 58% lean
The breakdown
Two women's flyweight grinders who have never been finished inside the octagon — both carry a 100% decision rate in their UFC careers. Jasudavicius has the higher Elo (1609 vs 1567) and went on a 4-fight win streak before her recent loss. Silva is younger at 32 and has a quicker turnaround at 133 days. The model gives Jasudavicius 61.6% but the market prices her at 72.9%, creating the card's biggest edge on the underdog side.
- Both fighters have 100% decision rate — this fight is almost certainly going the distance
- Jasudavicius significantly overpriced by market (72.9%) vs model (61.6%) — 11.3pp gap
- Jasudavicius has size edge at 5'7" / 68" reach but both are orthodox grinders
- Both coming off losses — neither has momentum advantage
The breakdown
A classic veteran-vs-prospect matchup. Moises has 15 UFC fights but an alternating LWLWL pattern that screams inconsistency, plus an 87.5% decision rate that means he rarely finishes. Young is only 25 with just 2 UFC fights but won his last outing and has the youth advantage. Identical physical dimensions at 5'9" / 70" reach.
- Young is 6 years younger (25 vs 31) with upward trajectory vs Moises' inconsistency
- Identical physical dimensions — this comes down to skill and cardio
- Moises' 87.5% decision rate and LWLWL form suggest a grinding, low-output style
- Young at -130 with 55.8% model probability = genuine +2.3pp edge
The breakdown
Buzukja returns after a massive 602-day layoff with a 1-3 UFC record and a switch stance. His lone win came by KO — 100% finish rate but only 1 fight's worth of data. Barbosa makes his UFC debut as a heavy favourite at -426, meaning the market sees him as significantly more skilled from his regional performances. The model agrees at 72% for Barbosa but thinks the market is slightly overpricing him, creating a small edge on the Buzukja underdog side.
- Buzukja's 602-day layoff is the longest on the card — extreme ring rust concern
- Barbosa is a UFC debutant priced as a -426 favourite — market sees clear skill gap
- Buzukja fights from switch stance and has 100% finish rate (1 KO from 1 win)
- Zero octagon data for Barbosa creates uncertainty despite strong regional reputation
The breakdown
Leblanc makes his UFC debut against Valentin who is 0-3 in the octagon and has never won a professional UFC fight. Despite zero octagon data for Leblanc, the model strongly favours him at 60.4% because Valentin's 0-3 record with a 1432 Elo is historically very predictive of continued losses. The market only gives Leblanc 52.6%, creating a massive +7.8pp edge.
- Valentin is 0-3 in UFC with 1432 Elo — historically this profile loses at high rates
- Leblanc is a debutant but any unknown is statistically better than a known 0-3 fighter
- Model predicts KO/TKO as most likely method at 43% — expect a finish
- Under 2.5 rounds at 70% — the model thinks this ends early
The breakdown
Boser returns after an extraordinary 987-day layoff — nearly three years out of competition. He has a .500 record at 5-5 with 60% of his wins by KO, showing real heavyweight power. Saricam makes his UFC debut with zero octagon data. Both are in their mid-30s. The model slightly favours Saricam at 56.6% largely because of Boser's extreme layoff and inconsistent record, but this is genuinely a coin flip with massive uncertainty on both sides.
- Boser's 987-day layoff (nearly 3 years) is the most extreme ring rust factor on the card
- Boser has 60% KO rate — real heavyweight power when he does win
- Saricam is a complete unknown at UFC level — debutant uncertainty is extreme
- Model barely separates them (56.6% vs 43.4%) — LOW confidence for a reason
- Heavyweight fights are inherently volatile — one punch changes everything
The breakdown
Two women's bantamweights with identical physical dimensions (5'9" / 68" reach) but divergent trajectories. Croden's lone win came by KO — she has finishing power — but she's coming off a loss. Zhelezniakova has the better record at 2-1 with a higher Elo (1529 vs 1505) and a win streak, though her 301-day layoff is notable.
- Identical dimensions (5'9" / 68" reach) — style and skill will be the differentiator
- Croden has finishing power (100% KO rate) but small sample of 1 win
- Zhelezniakova's 301-day layoff is concerning but she has the better recent form (WLW vs WL)
- Decision at 71% — expect a grinding fight that goes the distance
The breakdown
A big step up in competition for both, though Nascimento is clearly the more proven fighter with a 4-fight win streak and 1573 Elo. Raposo at 27 has the youth advantage but a 1-2 record and significant physical disadvantages — 3" shorter with 5" less reach. Nascimento has won all his fights by decision (100% decision rate) so expect a grinding, technical affair. The model sees this as a clear Nascimento fight at 65.7%.
- Nascimento on a 4-fight win streak — strong momentum and proven consistency
- Raposo has major physical disadvantages: 3" height and 5" reach deficit
- Nascimento's 100% decision rate means he controls fights but doesn't finish
- Raposo coming off a win but overall 1-2 record at lower Elo (1478 vs 1573)
The breakdown
Two experienced women's flyweights with nearly identical Elo ratings (1556 vs 1548). Aldrich is the UFC veteran with 16 fights and a 90% decision rate — she knows how to grind out wins on the scorecards. Horth has the momentum with a 2-fight win streak and a much shorter layoff (126 days vs Aldrich's 413). Horth is the hometown-adjacent Canadian fighter.
- Aldrich's 413-day layoff is significant — over a year out of competition
- Horth on a 2-fight win streak with momentum and shorter turnaround
- Nearly identical Elo (1556 vs 1548) — model sees this as closer than the market
- Aldrich's 90% decision rate means she drags fights into grinding territory
- Decision at 76% — one of the highest distance probabilities on the card
The breakdown
A genuine toss-up that the model barely separates. Castaneda is a UFC veteran at 4-4 but on a 2-fight losing streak with a 357-day layoff. Vologdin is a 25-year-old debutant with a massive physical disadvantage — 3" shorter with 6" less reach. Despite that, the market slightly favours Vologdin at -130, and the model agrees at 52.7%. Castaneda's experience edge is offset by his declining form and the physical mismatch going the other way.
- True toss-up at 52.7% — the model has almost no confidence in either side
- Vologdin has severe physical disadvantages at 5'3" / 65" reach
- Castaneda on a 2-fight losing streak with 357-day layoff — momentum is gone
- Vologdin is a 25-year-old debutant — youth and unknown upside vs veteran decline
- Sub at 26.9% is unusually high — grappling exchanges could be decisive
The breakdown
Siraj makes his UFC debut as a heavy favourite at -263 against Yannis who lost his only UFC fight. Yannis' 0-1 record with a 1473 Elo puts him in the historically weakest bracket of UFC fighters. The model predicts a finish — under 2.5 rounds at 69% — with a live three-way between KO, SUB, and DEC all within 6 percentage points of each other.
- Yannis 0-1 with 1473 Elo — historically this profile loses at very high rates
- Model 75.6% vs market 68.8% — the market is underpricing Siraj's advantage
- Under 2.5 rounds at 69% — model expects an early finish
- Live three-way method split: KO 30%, SUB 33%, DEC 37% — anything can happen