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Picks · Compare · Marquel Mederos vs Mason Jones
Lightweight · 3 rounds · Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Red corner
VS
18-2
Blue corner

The model's read of this fight

One honest, calibrated confidence split — a real, booked bout, so we show the number.

HIGH We predict Mason Jones66% confident
Marquel Mederos 34% Mason Jones 66%

Net of it, the method model leans a decision (48%), the model flags Mason Jones at HIGH.

Built only from the striking / grappling rates and the method read shown on this page — career averages from public UFC statistics. If a number isn't in the data, it isn't in this summary.

Tale of the tape

Marquel Mederos vs Mason Jones — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

Record18-2
NicknameDragon
Height5' 10"
Reach74.0"
StanceOrthodox
Age31
Weight155 lbs.
NationalityWales
HometownBlaenavon
Fighting out ofPedro Bessa BJJ
partial Vitals for Marquel Mederos are pending — shown as “—”.
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Marquel MederosMason Jones
n/a
Striking
70
n/a
Defence
36
n/a
Grappling / TD
59
64
Cardio
80
79
Chin
65
72
Fight IQ
62
Our read — derived, not official stats.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Marquel Mederos4 UFC fights · 326 landed

59.2%
HEAD
69.2%
16.3%
BODY
22.9%
24.5%
LEGS
7.9%

Mason Jones7 UFC fights · 541 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.

Stat-by-stat

Marquel Mederos (left) vs Mason Jones (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
vs
5.98
Striking accuracy
vs
42%
Strikes absorbed / min
vs
4.45
Striking defence
vs
50%
Takedowns / 15 min
vs
3.48
Takedown accuracy
vs
55%
Takedown defence
vs
73%
Sub attempts / 15 min
vs
0.2
partial Career stats for Marquel Mederos are pending — shown as “—”.
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Live market

The market line next to the live prediction-market price — information only, not a bet call.

paymentsSportsbook line
Marquel Mederos+295
Mason Jones-333
Live · Polymarket
Marquel Mederos22% · +344
Mason Jones78% · -344
as of 2026-08-22T19:51:08Z · $64,670 liquidity. The implied chance is the market's number, not ours.

Go deeper

Want to compare two other fighters? The build-your-own head-to-head lets you stack any two fighters we hold data on side by side — tale of the tape, stat-by-stat and the FightIQ Metrics. What it can't show is a model read: we only publish a prediction on a booked bout, where the call is timestamped before the cage door closes.
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