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Picks · Compare · Luis Felipe Dias vs Matthieu Duclos
Middleweight · 3 rounds · Hooker vs Parnasse
18-5
Red corner
VS
6-3
Blue corner

The model's read of this fight

One honest, calibrated confidence split — a real, booked bout, so we show the number.

TOSS-UP We predict Matthieu Duclos51% confident
Luis Felipe Dias 49% Matthieu Duclos 51%

On the feet Matthieu Duclos lands more volume — 3.93 strikes a minute to 1.77. The grappling gap is real: Luis Felipe Dias averages 6.24 takedowns per 15 min to 0. Net of it, the method model leans KO/TKO (43%), the edges are too close to separate — so we call it a toss-up and don't lean.

Built only from the striking / grappling rates and the method read shown on this page — career averages from public UFC statistics. If a number isn't in the data, it isn't in this summary.

Tale of the tape

Luis Felipe Dias vs Matthieu Duclos — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

18-5Record6-3
5' 10"Height6' 3"
74.0"Reach77.0"
StanceOrthodox
31Age31
185 lbs.Weight185 lbs.
BrazilNationality
Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao PauloHometown
Parana Vale TudoFighting out of
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Luis Felipe DiasMatthieu Duclos
28
Striking
52
59
Defence
20
81
Grappling / TD
n/a
n/a
CardioNo round past the first on our tape
n/a
63 limited sample
Chin
n/a
58
Fight IQ
36
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Luis Felipe Dias

Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.

HEAD66.7%ACC 45%BODY14.3%FIELD 21%LEGS19.0%FIELD 16%
FightIQ read Balanced attack 67% head / 14% body / 19% legs — no single target dominates.
Share by zonevs field average
HEAD
66.7% acc 45%+3.1 vs field
BODY
14.3%−6.3 vs field
LEGS
19.0%+3.1 vs field
Where the offence happens
DISTANCE 86%CLINCH 0%GROUND 14%

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Limited sample1 UFC fights · 21 landed

Stat-by-stat

Luis Felipe Dias (left) vs Matthieu Duclos (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
1.77
vs
3.93
Striking accuracy
38%
vs
37%
Strikes absorbed / min
2.7
vs
6.81
Striking defence
52%
vs
46%
Takedowns / 15 min
6.24
vs
0
Takedown accuracy
57%
vs
0%
Takedown defence
66%
vs
100%
Sub attempts / 15 min
1.6
vs
0
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Live market

The market line next to the live prediction-market price — information only, not a bet call.

paymentsSportsbook line
Luis Felipe Dias-104
Matthieu Duclos-118
Live · Polymarket
Luis Felipe Dias48% · +108
Matthieu Duclos52% · -108
as of 2026-08-30T09:51:07Z · $9,396 liquidity. The implied chance is the market's number, not ours.

Go deeper

Want to compare two other fighters? The build-your-own head-to-head lets you stack any two fighters we hold data on side by side — tale of the tape, stat-by-stat and the FightIQ Metrics. What it can't show is a model read: we only publish a prediction on a booked bout, where the call is timestamped before the cage door closes.
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