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Picks · Compare · Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov
Featherweight · 3 rounds · Hooker vs Parnasse
16-2
Red corner
VS
13-4
Blue corner

The model's read of this fight

One honest, calibrated confidence split — a real, booked bout, so we show the number.

MED We predict Losene Keita62% confident
Losene Keita 62% Muhammad Naimov 38%

The grappling gap is real: Muhammad Naimov averages 1.49 takedowns per 15 min to 0. Net of it, the method model leans a decision (45%), the model flags Losene Keita at MED.

Built only from the striking / grappling rates and the method read shown on this page — career averages from public UFC statistics. If a number isn't in the data, it isn't in this summary.

Tale of the tape

Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

16-2Record13-4
NicknameHillman
5' 7"Height5' 9"
72.0"Reach70.0"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
28Age32
145 lbs.Weight145 lbs.
BelgiumNationalityTajikistan
HometownDushanbe
Lamiro Fight ClubFighting out ofElevation Fight Team
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Losene KeitaMuhammad Naimov
58
Striking
39
55
Defence
32
n/a
Grappling / TD
27
64 limited sample
Cardio
57
62 limited sample
Chin
57
60
Fight IQ
42
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Losene Keita1 UFC fights · 52 landed

Limited sample
69.2%
HEAD
59.4%
25.0%
BODY
21.7%
5.8%
LEGS
18.9%

Muhammad Naimov7 UFC fights · 175 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Stat-by-stat

Losene Keita (left) vs Muhammad Naimov (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
3.47
vs
2.51
Striking accuracy
43%
vs
40%
Strikes absorbed / min
4.47
vs
3.35
Striking defence
62%
vs
44%
Takedowns / 15 min
0
vs
1.49
Takedown accuracy
0%
vs
30%
Takedown defence
100%
vs
68%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0
vs
0.2
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Live market

The market line next to the live prediction-market price — information only, not a bet call.

paymentsSportsbook line
Losene Keita-275
Muhammad Naimov+220
Live · Polymarket
Losene Keita74% · -292
Muhammad Naimov26% · +292
as of 2026-08-30T09:51:07Z · $268 liquidity. The implied chance is the market's number, not ours.

Go deeper

Want to compare two other fighters? The build-your-own head-to-head lets you stack any two fighters we hold data on side by side — tale of the tape, stat-by-stat and the FightIQ Metrics. What it can't show is a model read: we only publish a prediction on a booked bout, where the call is timestamped before the cage door closes.
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