This Saturday Nurmagomedov vs Song · Oriental Sports Center Pudong District China See this week's picks →
Picks · Compare · Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura
Bantamweight · 3 rounds · Nurmagomedov vs Song
26-12
Red corner
VS
21-6
Blue corner

The model's read of this fight

One honest, calibrated confidence split — a real, booked bout, so we show the number.

MED We predict Kai Asakura63% confident
Aoriqileng 37% Kai Asakura 63%

On the feet Aoriqileng lands more volume — 4.69 strikes a minute to 2.27. The grappling gap is real: Aoriqileng averages 1.2 takedowns per 15 min to 0. Net of it, the method model leans a decision (52%), the model flags Kai Asakura at MED.

Built only from the striking / grappling rates and the method read shown on this page — career averages from public UFC statistics. If a number isn't in the data, it isn't in this summary.

Tale of the tape

Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

26-12Record21-6
5' 7"Height5' 8"
69.0"Reach69.0"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
33Age32
135 lbs.Weight135 lbs.
NationalityJapan
HometownToyohashi, Aichi
Fighting out ofJapan Top Team
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

AoriqilengKai Asakura
78
Striking
26
26
Defence
48
50
Grappling / TD
n/a
81
Cardio
31 limited sample
24
Chin
64 limited sample
52
Fight IQ
42
Our read — derived, not official stats.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Aoriqileng10 UFC fights · 417 landed

65.0%
HEAD
70.2%
23.7%
BODY
21.3%
11.3%
LEGS
8.5%

Kai Asakura3 UFC fights · 47 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.

Stat-by-stat

Aoriqileng (left) vs Kai Asakura (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
4.69
vs
2.27
Striking accuracy
49%
vs
32%
Strikes absorbed / min
5.47
vs
3.53
Striking defence
48%
vs
52%
Takedowns / 15 min
1.2
vs
0
Takedown accuracy
46%
vs
0%
Takedown defence
58%
vs
50%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0
vs
0
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Live market

The market line next to the live prediction-market price — information only, not a bet call.

paymentsSportsbook line
Aoriqileng+350
Kai Asakura-430
Live · Polymarket
Aoriqileng20% · +388
Kai Asakura80% · -388
as of 2026-08-25T04:57:06Z · $452 liquidity. The implied chance is the market's number, not ours.

Go deeper

Want to compare two other fighters? The build-your-own head-to-head lets you stack any two fighters we hold data on side by side — tale of the tape, stat-by-stat and the FightIQ Metrics. What it can't show is a model read: we only publish a prediction on a booked bout, where the call is timestamped before the cage door closes.
← All matchups to compare