Round 1
20 of 86
Sig.
strikes
strikes
25 of 47
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:01
Control
0:01
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 20Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 24Clinch 1Ground 0
VSSettled
6-1
Record
8-2
33
Age
−3 yr30
5' 6"
Height
+1″5' 7"
69″
Reach
+3″72″
Team Lucas Mineiro
Gym
City Kickboxing
Brazil
From
Hong Kong
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count. Hector Santiago has no UFC bout on record yet, so those vitals come from ESPN’s public fighter register and the rows counted off UFC tape are not drawn for that corner.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Lawrence Lui
56.2% confidentLOW
The fight
Hector Santiago
LOSS✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 2⚡ 1 KD SantiagoEnded 0:53
10 of 25
Sig.
strikes
strikes
7 of 12
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:06
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 6Clinch 0Ground 4
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Hector Santiago
Round
2
Clock
0:53
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Vitor Ribeiro.
Takedowns
Takedowns
Lawrence Lui
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
FightIQ read
Volume wrestler
5.30 takedowns landed per 15 minutes — +3.22 on the field average.
Career ratesvs field average
TAKEDOWNS94
5.30 / 15m+3.22 vs field
ATTEMPTS95
13.25 / 15m+7.71 vs field
ACCURACY56
40%−1pp vs field
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m−1.07 vs field
TD DEFENCE100
100%+39pp vs field
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.45 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Ranked in Bantamweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Hector SantiagoLawrence LuiPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Lawrence Lui's implied chance moved up from 50% to 76% (+26.5pp).
This series stops at Aug 29 07:54Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Lawrence Lui at 56.2%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 76.5% — our number sat 20.3pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Santiago — sportsbook consensus | 26.6% | 24.7% | 29.5% | 24.8% | −1.8pp |
| Lawrence Lui — sportsbook consensus | 73.4% | 70.5% | 75.3% | 75.2% | +1.8pp |
| Hector Santiago — Polymarket | 50.0% | 22.5% | 50.0% | 23.5% | −26.5pp |
| Lawrence Lui — Polymarket | 50.0% | 50.0% | 77.5% | 76.5% | +26.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,854 snapshots on file · window Aug 22 22:06–Aug 29 07:48Z · last capture Aug 29, 07:48Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.