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Events · Nurmagomedov vs Song · Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas
Red corner BilalHasan“The IndoNinja”Charlie's Combat Club · Indonesia
VSSettled
Blue corner NilsonRojas“El Rayo”Pitbull Martial Arts Center · Chile
Flyweight3 rounds29 Aug 2026
9-0 (1 NC)
Record
9-0
−2 yr25
Age
27
+2″5' 7"
Height
5' 5"
Charlie's Combat Club
Gym
Pitbull Martial Arts Center
Indonesia
From
Chile
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count. Bilal Hasan and Nilson Rojas have no UFC bout on record yet, so those vitals come from ESPN’s public fighter register and the rows counted off UFC tape are not drawn for them.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call
Bilal Hasan
67.3% confidentHIGH
Method calledKO/TKO 38%
Vs the market−19.5pp
Market had our pick at87%
The fight
Bilal Hasan
WIN✓
How it endedKO/TKO
Round2 of 3
Clock2:28
Called it We called Bilal Hasan at 67.3% and Bilal Hasan won. The method call landed too.
Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

2 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Bilal Hasan38 sig landed
HEAD47%18 of 52BODY42%16 of 28LEGS11%4 of 8
Nilson Rojas17 sig landed
HEAD47%8 of 25BODY53%9 of 13LEGS0%0 landed
38 of 88
Sig.
strikes
17 of 38
1 of 1
Take-
downs
0 of 0
1:03
Control
0:03
0
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 24Clinch 8Ground 6
Where it
happened
Distance 13Clinch 4Ground 0
Round 22:28 of action⚡ 1 KD HasanEnded 2:28
Bilal Hasan15 sig landed
HEAD67%10 of 29BODY27%4 of 9LEGS7%1 of 3
Nilson Rojas16 sig landed
HEAD56%9 of 21BODY25%4 of 4LEGS19%3 of 3
15 of 41
Sig.
strikes
16 of 28
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 14Clinch 0Ground 1
Where it
happened
Distance 15Clinch 1Ground 0

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Bilal Hasan

Round
2
Clock
2:28
Method
KO/TKO

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Vitor Ribeiro.

The market story

What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.

Bilal HasanNilson RojasPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas — implied win chance over timeLine chart. Market-implied win chance for Bilal Hasan and Nilson Rojas from Aug 21 to Aug 29, drawn from Polymarket and the sportsbook consensus. Bilal Hasan moves from 50% to 86% and Nilson Rojas from 50% to 14%. A gold marker shows where our pick was frozen.5%15%25%35%45%55%65%75%85%95%Aug 21Aug 23Aug 25Aug 27Aug 29▲ we flagged Bilal Hasan (HIGH) here86%14%

From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Bilal Hasan's implied chance moved up from 50% to 86% (+36.0pp).

This series stops at Aug 29 10:03Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.

Our published call had Bilal Hasan at 67.3%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 86.0% — our number sat 18.7pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.

Show the numbers
SeriesOpenLowHighLast pre-fightMove
Bilal Hasan — sportsbook consensus79.0%79.0%86.8%86.7%+7.7pp
Nilson Rojas — sportsbook consensus21.1%13.2%21.1%13.3%−7.7pp
Bilal Hasan — Polymarket50.0%50.0%87.5%86.0%+36.0pp
Nilson Rojas — Polymarket50.0%12.5%50.0%14.0%−36.0pp
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 2,195 snapshots on file · window Aug 21 22:03–Aug 29 09:57Z · last capture Aug 29, 09:57Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.
← Back to the public record