This Saturday Nurmagomedov vs Song · Oriental Sports Center Pudong District China See this week's picks →
Events · McGregor vs Holloway 2 · King Green vs Terrance McKinney
Red corner KingGreenPinnacle MMA · Redlands, California
VSSettled
Blue corner TerranceMcKinney“T. Wrecks”Warrior Camp · Spokane, Washington
Lightweight3 rounds11 Jul 2026
The story going in
  • Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Every one of McKinney’s 8 UFC wins came inside the distance.
  • Has finished 7 of 16 UFC wins.
  • Averages 2.0 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Green.
36-17-1
Record
18-9
39
Age
−8 yr31
5' 10"
Height
5' 10"
71″
Reach
+2″73″
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
+1730
UFC bouts
13
7/1644% of wins
Finishes
+56%8/8100% of wins
Pinnacle MMA
Gym
Warrior Camp
Redlands, California
From
Spokane, Washington
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call
Terrance Mckinney
50.1% confidentTOSS-UP
Method calledKO/TKO 37%
Vs the market+0.1pp
Market had our pick at50%
The fight
Bobby Green
LOSS
How it endedKO/TKO
Round1 of 3
Clock4:59
Missed We called Terrance Mckinney at 50.1%Bobby Green won. We had the method right and the man wrong.
Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

1 round of tape

Round 14:59 of action⚡ 1 KD GreenEnded 4:59
King Green43 sig landed
HEAD42%18 of 43BODY47%20 of 24LEGS12%5 of 5
Terrance McKinney45 sig landed
HEAD89%40 of 75BODY11%5 of 5LEGS0%0 landed
43 of 72
Sig.
strikes
45 of 80
0 of 0
Take-
downs
1 of 1
0:03
Control
2:12
1
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 35Clinch 0Ground 8
Where it
happened
Distance 25Clinch 2Ground 18

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Bobby Green

Round
1
Clock
4:59
Method
KO/TKO

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Kerry Hatley.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

King Green

1.33takedowns / 15 min
1.33 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
3.31 / 15m
3.09 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
8.28 / 15m
43%
ACCURACY
40%
0.30 / 15m
SUB ATT
2.10 / 15m

Terrance McKinney

3.31takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on him that he stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.22 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Lightweight

The market story

Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.

King Green↑ +14.9pp
open 35.1%close 50.0%
Terrance McKinney↓ −14.9pp
open 64.9%close 50.0%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)

King Green opened at 35.1% and closed at 50.0% (+14.9pp), with Terrance McKinney moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.

Our published call had Terrance Mckinney at 50.1%. At the closing consensus, the de-vigged market had him at 50.0% — our number sat 0.1pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.

Show the numbers
CornerOpen (US)Close (US)Open %Close %Move
King Green175-11035.1%50.0%+14.9pp
Terrance McKinney-205-11064.9%50.0%−14.9pp
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-08-23. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.
← Back to the public record