Round 1
14 of 54
Sig.
strikes
strikes
15 of 32
0 of 3
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:24
Control
0:14
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 12Clinch 2Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 15Clinch 0Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Comes in on a 4-fight win streak.
- Carries 24 points more takedown defence than Nascimento.
- Has finished 2 of 4 UFC wins.
22-7
Record
11-3
34
Age
−7 yr27
+3″5' 8"
Height
5' 5"
+5″69″
Reach
64″
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
+25
UFC bouts
3
2/450% of wins
Finishes
0/10% of wins
Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo
From
Fall River, Massachusetts
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Allan Nascimento
59.5% confidentLOW
The fight
Mitch Raposo
LOSS✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 2
20 of 48
Sig.
strikes
strikes
19 of 48
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:26
Control
0:12
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 17Clinch 3Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 18Clinch 1Ground 0
Round 3⚡ 1 KD NascimentoEnded 5:00
24 of 40
Sig.
strikes
strikes
4 of 9
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
3:31
Control
0:21
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 12Clinch 5Ground 7
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 4Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
Judges’ scorecards
Every judge’s round, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score.
Official card
Decision - Split
Referee · Chris Tognoni
| Judge | Total |
|---|---|
| Eric Colon2.0 avg spread · 42% wide | 28–29 |
| Sal D'amato2.1 avg spread · 46% wide | 29–28 |
| Junichiro Kamijo2.0 avg spread · 43% wide | 28–29 |
⚠
Full round-by-round cards are pending a source refresh. The decisions corpus we read currently ends at 2026-05-16, so this bout has the judges’ totals but not their individual rounds yet. Nothing here is estimated to fill the gap — when the scrape is re-run, the grid appears.
Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.
Still to come on this page
Named rather than hidden. It is built from data already on disk and lands in the next pass of this build-out.
The market story coming in this build-out
What the price did in the week before the cage door shut, with the moment our pick was frozen marked on it. Where we captured no price history for a bout, this panel will say so rather than draw a line that was never there.