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Events · Song vs Figueiredo · Carlston Harris vs Jake Matthews
Red corner CarlstonHarris“Mocambique”Renovacao Fight Team · Skeldon
VSSettled
Blue corner JakeMatthews“The Celtic Kid”Nexus · Epping, Victoria
Welterweight3 rounds30 May 2026
The story going in
  • Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
  • Has finished 8 of 15 UFC wins.
  • Has finished 3 of 4 UFC wins.
  • 23 UFC bouts deep — 16 more than Harris.
19-8
Record
23-8
38
Age
−7 yr31
+1″6' 0"
Height
5' 11"
+3″76″
Reach
73″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
7
UFC bouts
+1623
+22%3/475% of wins
Finishes
8/1553% of wins
Renovacao Fight Team
Gym
Nexus
Skeldon
From
Epping, Victoria
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call
Jake Matthews
74.3% confidentHIGH
Method calledKO/TKO 37%
Vs the market+0.4pp
Market had our pick at74%
The fight
Jake Matthews
WIN
How it endedDEC
Round3 of 3
Clock5:00
Called it We called Jake Matthews at 74.3% and Jake Matthews won. The method call missed.
Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Carlston Harris25 sig landed
HEAD40%10 of 52BODY44%11 of 12LEGS16%4 of 5
Jake Matthews46 sig landed
HEAD80%37 of 74BODY20%9 of 9LEGS0%0 landed
25 of 69
Sig.
strikes
46 of 83
0 of 2
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:20
0
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 25Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 46Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 25:00 of action
Carlston Harris0 sig landed
HEAD0%0 landedBODY0%0 landedLEGS0%0 landed

No significant strikes landed

Jake Matthews1 sig landed
HEAD100%1 of 1BODY0%0 landedLEGS0%0 landed
0 of 0
Sig.
strikes
1 of 1
0 of 1
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:27
Control
4:25
0
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 1
Round 35:00 of action⚡ 1 KD MatthewsEnded 5:00
Carlston Harris2 sig landed
HEAD100%2 of 5BODY0%0 of 1LEGS0%0 landed
Jake Matthews8 sig landed
HEAD100%8 of 12BODY0%0 landedLEGS0%0 landed
2 of 6
Sig.
strikes
8 of 12
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
4:45
0
Knock-
downs
1
Distance 2Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 3Clinch 0Ground 5

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

Judges’ scorecards

Every judge’s round, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score.

Official card

Decision - Unanimous

Referee · Jason Herzog
Official totals — Carlston Harris first
JudgeTotal
Luke Hill25–30
David Lethaby2.0 avg spread · 43% wide27–30
Clemens Werner2.2 avg spread · 52% wide27–30

Full round-by-round cards are pending a source refresh. The decisions corpus we read currently ends at 2026-05-16, so this bout has the judges’ totals but not their individual rounds yet. Nothing here is estimated to fill the gap — when the scrape is re-run, the grid appears.

Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.

Still to come on this page

Named rather than hidden. It is built from data already on disk and lands in the next pass of this build-out.

The market story coming in this build-out

What the price did in the week before the cage door shut, with the moment our pick was frozen marked on it. Where we captured no price history for a bout, this panel will say so rather than draw a line that was never there.

← Back to the public record