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Events · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Costa · Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan
Red corner TucoTokkos
VSSettled
Blue corner IvanErslanAmerican Top Team Zagreb · Zagreb
Light Heavyweight3 rounds16 May 2026
The story going in
  • Averages 1.9 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Erslan.
  • Has dropped 3 straight in the UFC.
  • Carries 37 points more takedown defence than Tokkos.
11-6
Record
15-6
35
Age
−1 yr34
+2″6' 4"
Height
6' 2"
+4″76″
Reach
72″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
3
UFC bouts
3
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call
Tuco Tokkos
50.9% confidentTOSS-UP
Method calledDEC 42%
Vs the market+12.5pp
Market had our pick at38%
The fight
Ivan Erslan
LOSS
How it endedDEC
Round3 of 3
Clock5:00
Missed We called Tuco Tokkos at 50.9%Ivan Erslan won. We had the method right and the man wrong.
Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action1 sub attempt
Tuco Tokkos40 sig landed
HEAD75%30 of 72BODY12%5 of 7LEGS12%5 of 5
Ivan Erslan25 sig landed
HEAD96%24 of 39BODY4%1 of 1LEGS0%0 landed
40 of 84
Sig.
strikes
25 of 40
0 of 3
Take-
downs
0 of 0
1:09
Control
1:05
1
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 39Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 20Clinch 4Ground 1
Round 25:00 of action
Tuco Tokkos10 sig landed
HEAD80%8 of 21BODY10%1 of 3LEGS10%1 of 1
Ivan Erslan7 sig landed
HEAD86%6 of 19BODY14%1 of 1LEGS0%0 landed
10 of 25
Sig.
strikes
7 of 20
0 of 2
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
3:25
0
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 9Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 4Clinch 0Ground 3
Round 35:00 of actionEnded 5:00
Tuco Tokkos4 sig landed
HEAD50%2 of 7BODY50%2 of 6LEGS0%0 of 1
Ivan Erslan5 sig landed
HEAD100%5 of 6BODY0%0 landedLEGS0%0 landed
4 of 14
Sig.
strikes
5 of 6
0 of 1
Take-
downs
2 of 3
0:00
Control
4:01
0
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 4Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 4Clinch 0Ground 1

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

Judges’ scorecards

Every judge’s round, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score.

Official card

Unanimous Decision

Referee · Eric McMahon
Tuco TokkosIvan Erslan
Official card — Tuco Tokkos first
JudgeR1R2R3Total
Adalaide Byrd2.0 avg spread · 46% wide10–99–109–1028–29
Junichiro Kamijo2.0 avg spread · 43% wide10–99–109–1028–29
David Sutherland10–99–109–1028–29

Media cards — 8 scored, Tuco Tokkos first · unofficial

Combat Press.com27–30
Zane Simon The MMA Vivisection27–30
Tristen Critchfield Sherdog.com27–30
Ben Duffy Sherdog.com27–30
Tyler Treese Sherdog.com27–30
Keith Shillan Sherdog.com28–29
Danny Segura MMAJunkie.com28–29
Ryan Frederick WrestlingObserver.com28–29

Fan vote · unofficial

30-27 Erslan · 61%29-28 Erslan · 39%

23 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.

Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.

Still to come on this page

Named rather than hidden. It is built from data already on disk and lands in the next pass of this build-out.

The market story coming in this build-out

What the price did in the week before the cage door shut, with the moment our pick was frozen marked on it. Where we captured no price history for a bout, this panel will say so rather than draw a line that was never there.

← Back to the public record