Red cornerGrantDawson“KGD”American Top Team · Stromsburg, Nebraska
VSSettled
Blue cornerMateuszRebeckiAmerican Top Team · Szczecin
Lightweight3 rounds9 May 2026
The story going in
Has finished 6 of 11 UFC wins.
Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
14 UFC bouts deep — 7 more than Rebecki.
Has finished 2 of 4 UFC wins.
24-3-1
Record
21-5
−1 yr32
Age
33
+3″5' 10"
Height
5' 7"
+6″72″
Reach
66″
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
+714
UFC bouts
7
+5%6/1155% of wins
Finishes
2/450% of wins
American Top Team
Gym
American Top Team
Stromsburg, Nebraska
From
Szczecin
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Grant Dawson
74.3% confidentHIGH
Method calledDEC 51%
Vs the market+13.0pp
Market had our pick at61%
The fight
Grant Dawson
WIN✗
How it endedSUB
Round3 of 3
Clock4:42
Called itWe called Grant Dawson at 74.3% and Grant Dawson won. The method call missed.
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes
actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 15:00 of action1 sub attempt
Grant Dawson13 sig landedMateusz Rebecki8 sig landed
13 of 21
Sig. strikes
8 of 11
0 of 0
Take- downs
0 of 2
2:37
Control
0:50
0
Knock- downs
0
1
Sub attempts
0
Distance 4Clinch 5Ground 4
Where it happened
Distance 4Clinch 4Ground 0
Round 25:00 of action⚡ 1 KD Rebecki
Grant Dawson20 sig landedMateusz Rebecki24 sig landed
20 of 69
Sig. strikes
24 of 51
0 of 2
Take- downs
1 of 3
0:14
Control
1:29
0
Knock- downs
1
0
Sub attempts
0
Distance 19Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it happened
Distance 22Clinch 0Ground 2
Round 34:42 of action3 sub attemptsEnded 4:42
Grant Dawson2 sig landedMateusz Rebecki1 sig landed
2 of 4
Sig. strikes
1 of 2
1 of 1
Take- downs
0 of 0
4:17
Control
0:03
0
Knock- downs
0
3
Sub attempts
0
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 1
Where it happened
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Grant Dawson
Round
3
Clock
4:42
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Mike Beltran.
Still to come on this page
Named rather than hidden. It is built from data already on disk and
lands in the next pass of this build-out.
The market story coming in this build-out
What the price did in the week before the cage door shut, with the moment our
pick was frozen marked on it. Where we captured no price history for a bout, this
panel will say so rather than draw a line that was never there.