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Events · UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland · Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki
Red corner GrantDawson“KGD”American Top Team · Stromsburg, Nebraska
VSSettled
Blue corner MateuszRebeckiAmerican Top Team · Szczecin
Lightweight3 rounds9 May 2026
The story going in
  • Has finished 6 of 11 UFC wins.
  • Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
  • 14 UFC bouts deep — 7 more than Rebecki.
  • Has finished 2 of 4 UFC wins.
24-3-1
Record
21-5
−1 yr32
Age
33
+3″5' 10"
Height
5' 7"
+6″72″
Reach
66″
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
+714
UFC bouts
7
+5%6/1155% of wins
Finishes
2/450% of wins
American Top Team
Gym
American Top Team
Stromsburg, Nebraska
From
Szczecin
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call
Grant Dawson
74.3% confidentHIGH
Method calledDEC 51%
Vs the market+13.0pp
Market had our pick at61%
The fight
Grant Dawson
WIN
How it endedSUB
Round3 of 3
Clock4:42
Called it We called Grant Dawson at 74.3% and Grant Dawson won. The method call missed.
Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action1 sub attempt
Grant Dawson13 sig landed
HEAD54%7 of 15BODY46%6 of 6LEGS0%0 landed
Mateusz Rebecki8 sig landed
HEAD88%7 of 10BODY0%0 landedLEGS12%1 of 1
13 of 21
Sig.
strikes
8 of 11
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 2
2:37
Control
0:50
0
Knock-
downs
0
1
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 4Clinch 5Ground 4
Where it
happened
Distance 4Clinch 4Ground 0
Round 25:00 of action⚡ 1 KD Rebecki
Grant Dawson20 sig landed
HEAD50%10 of 48BODY40%8 of 17LEGS10%2 of 4
Mateusz Rebecki24 sig landed
HEAD83%20 of 45BODY4%1 of 2LEGS12%3 of 4
20 of 69
Sig.
strikes
24 of 51
0 of 2
Take-
downs
1 of 3
0:14
Control
1:29
0
Knock-
downs
1
0
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 19Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 22Clinch 0Ground 2
Round 34:42 of action3 sub attemptsEnded 4:42
Grant Dawson2 sig landed
HEAD100%2 of 4BODY0%0 landedLEGS0%0 landed
Mateusz Rebecki1 sig landed
HEAD0%0 of 1BODY0%0 landedLEGS100%1 of 1
2 of 4
Sig.
strikes
1 of 2
1 of 1
Take-
downs
0 of 0
4:17
Control
0:03
0
Knock-
downs
0
3
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 1
Where it
happened
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 0

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Grant Dawson

Round
3
Clock
4:42
Method
SUB

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Mike Beltran.

Still to come on this page

Named rather than hidden. It is built from data already on disk and lands in the next pass of this build-out.

The market story coming in this build-out

What the price did in the week before the cage door shut, with the moment our pick was frozen marked on it. Where we captured no price history for a bout, this panel will say so rather than draw a line that was never there.

← Back to the public record