This Saturday Nurmagomedov vs Song · Oriental Sports Center Pudong District China See this week's picks →
Events · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs Zalal · Rafa Garcia vs Alexander Hernandez
Red corner RafaGarcia“Gifted”Mexicali, Baja California
VSSettled
Blue corner AlexanderHernandez“The Great Ape”Factory X · San Antonio, Texas
Lightweight5 rounds25 Apr 2026
The story going in
  • Comes in on a 2-fight win streak.
  • Comes in on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Has finished 2 of 6 UFC wins.
  • Has finished 5 of 10 UFC wins.
19-4
Record
18-9
−2 yr31
Age
33
5' 7"
Height
+2″5' 9"
70″
Reach
+2″72″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
10
UFC bouts
+717
2/633% of wins
Finishes
+17%5/1050% of wins
Mexicali, Baja California
From
San Antonio, Texas
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call
Rafa Garcia
50.5% confidentTOSS-UP
Method calledDEC 63%
Vs the market+7.8pp
Market had our pick at43%
The fight
Rafa Garcia
WIN
How it endedDEC
Round3 of 5
Clock5:00
Called it We called Rafa Garcia at 50.5% and Rafa Garcia won. The method call landed too.
Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Rafa Garcia10 sig landed
HEAD60%6 of 36BODY0%0 landedLEGS40%4 of 4
Alexander Hernandez8 sig landed
HEAD62%5 of 20BODY38%3 of 4LEGS0%0 of 3
10 of 40
Sig.
strikes
8 of 27
2 of 2
Take-
downs
0 of 1
0:28
Control
0:00
Distance 10Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 8Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 25:00 of action
Rafa Garcia20 sig landed
HEAD95%19 of 65BODY0%0 landedLEGS5%1 of 1
Alexander Hernandez18 sig landed
HEAD78%14 of 32BODY17%3 of 4LEGS6%1 of 2
20 of 66
Sig.
strikes
18 of 38
0 of 1
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:10
Control
0:00
Distance 19Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 18Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 35:00 of actionEnded 5:00
Rafa Garcia29 sig landed
HEAD93%27 of 60BODY3%1 of 2LEGS3%1 of 1
Alexander Hernandez24 sig landed
HEAD88%21 of 74BODY12%3 of 6LEGS0%0 landed
29 of 63
Sig.
strikes
24 of 80
2 of 4
Take-
downs
0 of 0
1:12
Control
0:00
Distance 28Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 24Clinch 0Ground 0

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

Judges’ scorecards

Every judge’s round, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score.

Official card

Unanimous Decision

Referee · Kerry Hatley
Rafa GarciaAlexander Hernandez
Official card — Rafa Garcia first
JudgeR1R2R3Total
Derek Cleary2.1 avg spread · 43% wide10–910–99–1029–28
Sal D'Amato2.1 avg spread · 46% wide10–910–99–1029–28
Junichiro Kamijo2.0 avg spread · 43% wide10–910–910–930–27

Media cards — 13 scored, Rafa Garcia first · unofficial

Combat Press.com30–27
Ryan Frederick WrestlingObserver.com30–27
Dayne Fox Sherdog.com30–27
Zane Simon The MMA Vivisection30–27
MM AMania.com30–27
Dan Levi Best Fight Picks30–27
Matthew Wells MMAJunkie.com30–27
Jay Pettry Sherdog.com30–27
MM A Latinoamerica29–28
Jake Noecker Home of Fight29–28
Keith Shillan Sherdog.com29–28
Brian Knapp Sherdog.com29–28
Tyler Treese Sherdog.com29–28

Fan vote · unofficial

30-27 Garcia · 65%29-28 Garcia · 30%29-28 Hernandez · 5%

20 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.

Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.

Still to come on this page

Named rather than hidden. It is built from data already on disk and lands in the next pass of this build-out.

The market story coming in this build-out

What the price did in the week before the cage door shut, with the moment our pick was frozen marked on it. Where we captured no price history for a bout, this panel will say so rather than draw a line that was never there.

← Back to the public record