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Events · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Cesar Almeida vs Roman Kopylov
From the tape · 1 Jun 2024

Cesar Almeida vs Roman Kopylov

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Newark, New Jersey, USA
Result

Roman Kopylov beat Cesar Almeida

Method
Decision - Split
Round
3 of 3
Clock
5:00
MiddleweightMain cardReferee · Herb Dean

We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.

Red corner CesarAlmeida“Cesinha”Lotus MMA · Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo
VSOn the tape
Blue corner RomanKopylovRaty Team · Novosibirsk, Novosibirsk Oblast
Middleweight3 rounds1 Jun 2024
The story going in
  • Is 8 points more accurate striking than Kopylov.
  • Every one of Kopylov’s 4 UFC wins came inside the distance.
  • 7 UFC bouts deep — 6 more than Almeida.
7-3
Record
15-5
36
Age
−4 yr32
+1″6' 1"
Height
6' 0"
74″
Reach
+1″75″
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
1
UFC bouts
+67
1/1100% of wins
Finishes
4/4100% of wins
Lotus MMA
Gym
Raty Team
Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo
From
Novosibirsk, Novosibirsk Oblast
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them, and how the three judges scored that round.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action⚡ 1 KD Kopylov
Cesar Almeida23 sig landed
HEAD17%4 of 15BODY30%7 of 10LEGS52%12 of 17
Roman Kopylov18 sig landed
HEAD72%13 of 26BODY22%4 of 4LEGS6%1 of 1
23 of 42
Sig.
strikes
18 of 31
0 of 0
Take-
downs
2 of 3
0:00
Control
2:01
0
Knock-
downs
1
Distance 23Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 12Clinch 0Ground 6
Judges · this round · Almeida firstEric Colón9–10Sal D'Amato9–10Chris Lee9–10
Round 25:00 of action
Cesar Almeida20 sig landed
HEAD35%7 of 19BODY55%11 of 13LEGS10%2 of 4
Roman Kopylov9 sig landed
HEAD89%8 of 17BODY0%0 of 1LEGS11%1 of 1
20 of 36
Sig.
strikes
9 of 19
0 of 0
Take-
downs
1 of 3
0:00
Control
2:58
0
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 16Clinch 4Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 9Clinch 0Ground 0
Judges · this round · Almeida firstEric Colón10–9Sal D'Amato9–10Chris Lee10–9
Round 35:00 of actionEnded 5:00
Cesar Almeida15 sig landed
HEAD47%7 of 18BODY40%6 of 7LEGS13%2 of 2
Roman Kopylov14 sig landed
HEAD93%13 of 20BODY7%1 of 1LEGS0%0 landed
15 of 27
Sig.
strikes
14 of 21
0 of 0
Take-
downs
2 of 3
0:00
Control
3:40
0
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 12Clinch 2Ground 1
Where it
happened
Distance 11Clinch 0Ground 3
Judges · this round · Almeida firstEric Colón9–10Sal D'Amato9–10Chris Lee10–9

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

The cards, totalled

The judges’ final totals, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score. Their round-by-round 10–9s are with the rounds above.

Official card

Split Decision

Referee · Herb Dean
Cesar AlmeidaRoman Kopylov
Official totals — Cesar Almeida first
JudgeTotal
Eric Colón2.0 avg spread · 43% wide28–29
Sal D'Amato2.1 avg spread · 46% wide27–30
Chris Lee2.0 avg spread · 44% wide29–28

Each judge’s round-by-round scores sit with the round they belong to, in the round-by-round section above — switch a round there and the three cards for it change with the stats.

Media cards — 14 scored, Cesar Almeida first · unofficial

Dan Levi Best Fight Picks27–30
Daniel Yanofsky The Sporting News27–30
Ryan Frederick WrestlingObserver.com27–30
Jake Noecker Cageside Press27–30
Danny Segura MMAJunkie.com27–30
John Pollock POST Wrestling27–30
MM AJunkie.com27–30
Jay Pettry Sherdog.com28–29
Ben Duffy Sherdog.com28–29
Devin Tejada Sherdog.com28–29
Zane Simon The MMA Vivisection28–29
Keith Shillan Sherdog.com28–29
Steve Duncan mma.uno28–29
Dayne Fox The MMA Draw29–28

Fan vote · unofficial

29-28 Kopylov · 40%30-27 Kopylov · 36%29-28 Almeida · 16%29-27 Kopylov · 4%30-26 Kopylov · 3%

141 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.

Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Cesar Almeida

0.00takedowns / 15 min
0.00 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.12 / 15m
n/a
ATTEMPTS
2.24 / 15m
n/a
ACCURACY
50%
0.20 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m

Roman Kopylov

1.12takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Middleweight

The market story

Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.

Cesar Almeida↑ +9.2pp
open 42.3%close 51.5%
Roman Kopylov↓ −9.2pp
open 57.7%close 48.5%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)

Cesar Almeida opened at 42.3% and closed at 51.5% (+9.2pp), with Roman Kopylov moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.

Show the numbers
CornerOpen (US)Close (US)Open %Close %Move
Cesar Almeida120-11742.3%51.5%+9.2pp
Roman Kopylov-163-10357.7%48.5%−9.2pp
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · dated 2024-06-02 on the odds record (1d from the card date; the nearest day inside a two-day window is used, never a guess) · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.
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