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Events · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Jamie Mullarkey vs Francisco Prado
From the tape · 11 Feb 2023

Jamie Mullarkey vs Francisco Prado

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Result

Jamie Mullarkey beat Francisco Prado

Method
Decision - Unanimous
Round
3 of 3
Clock
5:00
LightweightMain cardReferee · Marc Goddard

We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.

Red corner JamieMullarkeyCity Kickboxing · Central Coast, New South Wales
VSOn the tape
Blue corner FranciscoPradoAmerican Top Team · San Lorenzo, Santa Fe
Lightweight3 rounds11 Feb 2023
The story going in
  • Has finished 2 of 3 UFC wins.
  • Carries 30 points more takedown defence than Prado.
18-9
Record
12-5
28
Age
−8 yr20
+2″6' 0"
Height
5' 10"
+5″74″
Reach
69″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
City Kickboxing
Gym
American Top Team
Central Coast, New South Wales
From
San Lorenzo, Santa Fe
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them, and how the three judges scored that round.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Jamie Mullarkey15 sig landed
HEAD67%10 of 15BODY13%2 of 2LEGS20%3 of 3
Francisco Prado7 sig landed
HEAD71%5 of 9BODY14%1 of 2LEGS14%1 of 1
15 of 20
Sig.
strikes
7 of 12
2 of 2
Take-
downs
0 of 0
3:39
Control
0:00
0
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 8
Where it
happened
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 0
Judges · this round · Mullarkey firstBen Cartlidge10–9Evan Field10–9Garth Harriman10–9
Round 25:00 of action
Jamie Mullarkey25 sig landed
HEAD44%11 of 33BODY28%7 of 7LEGS28%7 of 9
Francisco Prado13 sig landed
HEAD54%7 of 28BODY8%1 of 4LEGS38%5 of 6
25 of 49
Sig.
strikes
13 of 38
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 1
0:00
Control
0:00
0
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 25Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 13Clinch 0Ground 0
Judges · this round · Mullarkey firstBen Cartlidge10–9Evan Field10–9Garth Harriman10–9
Round 35:00 of action1 sub attemptEnded 5:00
Jamie Mullarkey19 sig landed
HEAD37%7 of 22BODY21%4 of 5LEGS42%8 of 8
Francisco Prado8 sig landed
HEAD75%6 of 21BODY25%2 of 4LEGS0%0 landed
19 of 35
Sig.
strikes
8 of 25
1 of 2
Take-
downs
0 of 1
1:08
Control
0:10
0
Sub
attempts
1
Distance 17Clinch 0Ground 2
Where it
happened
Distance 8Clinch 0Ground 0
Judges · this round · Mullarkey firstBen Cartlidge10–9Evan Field10–9Garth Harriman10–9

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

The cards, totalled

The judges’ final totals, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score. Their round-by-round 10–9s are with the rounds above.

Official card

Unanimous Decision

Referee · Marc Goddard
Jamie MullarkeyFrancisco Prado
Official totals — Jamie Mullarkey first
JudgeTotal
Ben Cartlidge2.1 avg spread · 45% wide30–27
Evan Field2.2 avg spread · 48% wide30–27
Garth Harriman1.9 avg spread · 46% wide30–27

Each judge’s round-by-round scores sit with the round they belong to, in the round-by-round section above — switch a round there and the three cards for it change with the stats.

Media cards — 16 scored, Jamie Mullarkey first · unofficial

Sheehan SevereMMA.com30–27
John Pollock POST Wrestling30–27
Jillian DeCoursey30–27
Steve Duncan mma.uno30–27
Keith Shillan Sherdog.com30–27
Danny Segura MMAJunkie.com30–27
Combat Press.com30–27
Bloody Elbow.com30–27
Dan Urban Couchside Judges30–27
Matthew Wells MMAJunkie.com30–27
Ryan Frederick WrestlingObserver.com30–27
Jay Pettry Sherdog.com30–27
Tyler Treese Sherdog.com30–27
Jack Dankoff Sherdog.com30–27
MM AJunkie.com30–27
MM AMania.com30–27

Fan vote · unofficial

30-27 Mullarkey · 90%29-28 Mullarkey · 3%30-26 Mullarkey · 3%29-28 Prado · 3%

29 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.

Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Jamie Mullarkey

2.46takedowns / 15 min
2.46 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.76 / 15m
8.20 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
4.00 / 15m
30%
ACCURACY
19%
0.10 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.80 / 15m

Francisco Prado

0.76takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.32 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked roster-wide

The market story

Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.

Jamie Mullarkey↑ +2.1pp
open 68.9%close 71.0%
Francisco Prado↓ −2.1pp
open 31.1%close 29.0%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)

Jamie Mullarkey opened at 68.9% and closed at 71.0% (+2.1pp), with Francisco Prado moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.

Show the numbers
CornerOpen (US)Close (US)Open %Close %Move
Jamie Mullarkey-250-29368.9%71.0%+2.1pp
Francisco Prado21022931.1%29.0%−2.1pp
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · dated 2023-02-12 on the odds record (1d from the card date; the nearest day inside a two-day window is used, never a guess) · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.
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