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Events · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Renan Barao vs Mitch Gagnon
From the tape · 20 Dec 2014

Renan Barao vs Mitch Gagnon

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Result

Renan Barao beat Mitch Gagnon

Method
Submission
Round
3 of 3
Clock
3:53
BantamweightCo-MainReferee · Mario Yamasaki

We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.

RB
Red corner RenanBarao“The Baron”Pitbull Brothers · Natal, Rio Grande do Norte
VSOn the tape
MG
Blue corner MitchGagnonTroop MMA · Sudbury, Ontario
Bantamweight3 rounds20 Dec 2014
The story going in
  • Has finished 4 of 7 UFC wins.
  • Comes in on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Carries 26 points more takedown defence than Gagnon.
  • Has finished 3 of 4 UFC wins.
34-9
Record
12-5
−3 yr27
Age
30
+1″5' 6"
Height
5' 5"
+5″70″
Reach
65″
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
+38
UFC bouts
5
4/757% of wins
Finishes
+18%3/475% of wins
Pitbull Brothers
Gym
Troop MMA
Natal, Rio Grande do Norte
From
Sudbury, Ontario
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action⚡ 1 KD Barao
Renan Barao17 sig landed
HEAD47%8 of 40BODY24%4 of 7LEGS29%5 of 5
Mitch Gagnon25 sig landed
HEAD52%13 of 32BODY28%7 of 10LEGS20%5 of 5
17 of 52
Sig.
strikes
25 of 47
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 1
0:31
Control
0:40
1
Knock-
downs
0
0
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 13Clinch 4Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 23Clinch 2Ground 0
Round 25:00 of action
Renan Barao25 sig landed
HEAD48%12 of 34BODY32%8 of 12LEGS20%5 of 6
Mitch Gagnon22 sig landed
HEAD68%15 of 34BODY27%6 of 12LEGS5%1 of 1
25 of 52
Sig.
strikes
22 of 47
0 of 1
Take-
downs
0 of 2
0:42
Control
2:20
0
Knock-
downs
0
0
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 11Clinch 14Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 16Clinch 6Ground 0
Round 33:53 of action1 sub attemptEnded 3:53
Renan Barao17 sig landed
HEAD53%9 of 24BODY35%6 of 8LEGS12%2 of 2
Mitch Gagnon11 sig landed
HEAD36%4 of 10BODY36%4 of 4LEGS27%3 of 3
17 of 34
Sig.
strikes
11 of 17
2 of 3
Take-
downs
0 of 4
1:09
Control
1:15
0
Knock-
downs
0
1
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 10Clinch 7Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 6Clinch 5Ground 0

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Renan Barao

Round
3
Clock
3:53
Method
Submission

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Mario Yamasaki.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Renan Barao

1.49takedowns / 15 min
1.49 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.16 / 15m
3.63 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
4.64 / 15m
41%
ACCURACY
25%
0.50 / 15m
SUB ATT
1.90 / 15m

Mitch Gagnon

1.16takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.45 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Bantamweight

The market story

Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.

Renan Barao↑ +5.3pp
open 82.4%close 87.7%
Mitch Gagnon↓ −5.3pp
open 17.6%close 12.3%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)

Renan Barao opened at 82.4% and closed at 87.7% (+5.3pp), with Mitch Gagnon moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.

Show the numbers
CornerOpen (US)Close (US)Open %Close %Move
Renan Barao-705-94882.4%87.7%+5.3pp
Mitch Gagnon43568817.6%12.3%−5.3pp
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.
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