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Events · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · Roger Huerta vs Clay Guida
From the tape · 8 Dec 2007

Roger Huerta vs Clay Guida

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Result

Roger Huerta beat Clay Guida

Method
Submission
Round
3 of 3
Clock
0:51
LightweightMainReferee · John McCarthy

We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.

RH
Red corner RogerHuerta“El Matador”Bali Fit Corner · Austin, Texas
VSOn the tape
CG
Blue corner ClayGuida“The Carpenter”Team Alpha Male · Round Lake, Illinois
Lightweight3 rounds8 Dec 2007
The story going in
  • Comes in on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Carries 14 points more takedown defence than Huerta.
  • Has finished 3 of 5 UFC wins.
23-9-1
Record
38-22
−2 yr24
Age
26
+2″5' 9"
Height
5' 7"
70″
Reach
70″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
+15
UFC bouts
4
3/560% of wins
Finishes
1/250% of wins
Bali Fit Corner
Gym
Team Alpha Male
Austin, Texas
From
Round Lake, Illinois
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action3 sub attempts
Roger Huerta9 sig landed
HEAD89%8 of 28BODY11%1 of 1LEGS0%0 landed
Clay Guida12 sig landed
HEAD50%6 of 18BODY50%6 of 8LEGS0%0 landed
9 of 29
Sig.
strikes
12 of 26
0 of 0
Take-
downs
3 of 3
0:25
Control
2:58
0
Knock-
downs
0
2
Sub
attempts
1
Distance 8Clinch 0Ground 1
Where it
happened
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 5
Round 25:00 of action⚡ 1 KD Guida
Roger Huerta13 sig landed
HEAD92%12 of 39BODY8%1 of 4LEGS0%0 landed
Clay Guida32 sig landed
HEAD72%23 of 41BODY25%8 of 9LEGS3%1 of 1
13 of 43
Sig.
strikes
32 of 51
0 of 0
Take-
downs
3 of 5
0:10
Control
2:56
0
Knock-
downs
1
0
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 12Clinch 0Ground 1
Where it
happened
Distance 20Clinch 0Ground 12
Round 30:51 of action1 sub attemptEnded 0:51
Roger Huerta9 sig landed
HEAD89%8 of 29BODY11%1 of 1LEGS0%0 landed
Clay Guida3 sig landed
HEAD100%3 of 8BODY0%0 landedLEGS0%0 landed
9 of 30
Sig.
strikes
3 of 8
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 3
0:15
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
0
1
Sub
attempts
0
Distance 9Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 3Clinch 0Ground 0

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Roger Huerta

Round
3
Clock
0:51
Method
Submission

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: John McCarthy.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Roger Huerta

2.13takedowns / 15 min
2.13 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
3.10 / 15m
4.63 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
8.86 / 15m
46%
ACCURACY
35%
0.50 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.60 / 15m

Clay Guida

3.10takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.22 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Lightweight

The market story

Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.

Roger Huerta↑ +3.7pp
open 45.2%close 48.9%
Clay Guida↓ −3.7pp
open 54.8%close 51.1%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)

Roger Huerta opened at 45.2% and closed at 48.9% (+3.7pp), with Clay Guida moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.

Show the numbers
CornerOpen (US)Close (US)Open %Close %Move
Roger Huerta105-10545.2%48.9%+3.7pp
Clay Guida-145-11554.8%51.1%−3.7pp
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.
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